Beezerspalace

week #16

Cleveland -3 at Cincy (43 1/2)

In a bad weather game, it's hard not to like the matchup of Bengal killer Jamal Lewis and the Browns offensive line vs the maligned Cincy defense.  The Bengals have played better defense in recent weeks but it they won't keep the Browns in check for 60 minutes.

I'm expecting a closer game than expected that the Browns find a way to win in the 4th Q.

Cleveland -3

They have been finding ways to win while the Bengals have been throwing games away.

Detroit - 4 1/2 vs K. C.

The Lions will play like the team that should have won the game vs Dallas 2 wks ago in their final home game of the season.

The Chiefs don't even have a QB that can shred Detroits secondary.

Detroit -4 1/2

Arizona -10 vs Atlanta

The Cards won't mind kicking the dirtybirds while they're down.  The Falcons just want to go home and forget this season.

Arizona -10

Tampa Bay -7 at San Fran

The Niners will struggle to score 10 points.

Tampa Bay -7

Wonder Dogs

There are quite a few teams getting points today that when it's all said and done will make you wonder how in the hell they covered.  I can't call any of these teams w/ confidence but it wouldn't suprrise me if they cover:

Buffalo +3

NY Jets +8 1/2

Washington + 6 1/2

Philly + 3 1/2

Houston +7

Thursday Night hangover

Pittsburgh - 7 1/2 at St Louis

It's not hard to imagine what kind of a game two teams coming off back to back losses will make for.  This game has some fugly on it.  Pittsburgh's offense is struggling and injury depleted.  They will be even less high powered on a short week.  The Steel Curtain is slumping but surely won't let the Rams light them up.  I like the under.

Under 43 1/2

Week 14

Cincinnati -6 1/2 vs St Louis

The Bengals will rebound from a bad game at Pitt and play like the team that beat the Titans very soundly.  The Bengals have an excellent record at home vs the number in December.

Cincy -6 1/2

Buffalo -7 vs Miami

In case you are not all that familiar w/ the AFC East, this is a huge rivalry.  Buffalo's defense will have no sympathy for the Fish.

Buffalo -7

Under 36

Seattle -7 vs Arizona

Cards offense will struggle at Seattle and their defense is ailing.

Seattle -7

Seachickens keep it going and win big.

Minnesota -8 1/2 at San Fran (39)

I'm not ready to trust QB T Jackson to cover this line on the road.  The under looks better than taking Minnesota.

Under 39

Cleveland -3 at New York

New York is capable of making this a close game.  Cleveland's defense is average at best.  Stay away from this game.

Philly -3 vs New York 42 1/2

A difficult game to figure.  Neither team has been an offensive juggernaut of late.  I'm seeing a low scoring hard fought division game.

under 42 1/2

Green Bay -10 1/2 vs Oakland (41)

Justin Fargas isn't going to run wild at Green Bay.  Da Raiders get a reality check after winning two games against teams they are familiar with.  Pack may be conservative on offense, unless the Raiders start moving the ball.  I can't see Oakland scoring may points at G.B. in December.  10 1/2 is too many to lay considering Favre's arm status, but the under has some appeal.

Under 41

New England -10 1/2 vs Pitt

Steelers offense can't keep up with the Pats at Foxboro.

New England -10 1/2

A bargain at -10 1/2

Week 12

Tennessee -1.5 vs Cincinnati {46.5}   this is the easiest call for me this Sunday. Tennessee's rushing attack will thrive vs the Bungles hapless defense and that's putting it mildly. The Bungles will choke on offense once they realize they have to score on every possession to keep pace with V Young and Co.

Tenn -1.5   they are damn near lock status    over 46.5

Cleveland-3 vs Houston  {51}     barring bad weather or windy conditions, the total for this game couldn't be high enough to stop this track meet from going over. the over is a safer play than either team but if forced to call this one, I would go with Houston and the points.

over 51 check the weather before making any decisions

San Diego - 8.5 vs Baltimore  {38.5)   the under almost makes too much sense to me for this game. the Bolts don't have the wideouts or a good enough QB to exploit Baltimore's woes in their secondary and no one has run on Baltimore with huge success. On offense ,Baltimore will play like,well,like they have for most of this season at San Diego. They will struggle to score 17 points. The Bolts will use a conservative gameplan knowing it won't take many points to win the game.

under 38.5

New England -24 vs Philly  J Feeley, are you kidding me. the best thing about the Pats is that they are really enjoying stomping the guts out of the rest of the league as a result of being called cheaters for something that most teams do or have done themselves. The Pats will score their usual 47 points while J Feeley tries to get a feel for playing a legit team  after a long layoff.  the Iggles will be lucky to score 13 points at New England

New England -24 there's a reason this line is so huge and its because the oddsmakers are trying to run you off this epic run by New England.  don't be scared,even H Evans and K Eckle will put a few points on the board late in this game.

Turkey Day

There's no locks on the plate this Thanksgiving, what a shame.  Not to worry , you can still find a way to carve up a few bucks out of today's action. Take the home team in all 3 games for the same amount and you will do no worse than 2 out of 3 ain't bad.

Mile High Coin Flip

Denver -2 vs Tennessee

I feel sorry for the guy who tries to get even on this game.  After some serious thought, I am starting to get a clear picture on this game.  The Titans are the pick, they are more battle tested.  In a game where TD's will be hard to come by, this all going to come down to one play.  Vince Young is the guy I want my money on in this situation over Cutler every time. 

Tennessee has the more consistent running game and the better run defense even w/o Haynesworth.  The Broncos can pile up all the yardage they want but will continue to struggle in the redzone.  Denver is going to have to lean on Cutler more than Tennessee having to put the game on V. Young's shoulders.  This game will be decided by turnovers and the Titans get the edge in that dept.

Tennessee +2

Week 11 kickoff

Cincinnati -3 vs Arizona

This will be a close game at the worst that the Cards have a good chance of winning.  The Bengals 3 wins are 2 vs Baltimore and the other coming vs the Jets.  What a short memory the public has.  Two wks ago, they got destroyed by Buffalo.

Arizona +3     highly recommended.

New England -16 vs Buffalo

The Bills may put 17 points on the board.  The Pats are good for 35 at the minimum. 

New England -16

Jacksonville -3 vs San Diego

Take the home team.  Philip Rivers doesn't have enough weapons at WR to spread out the Jags like the Saints did.  LT is going to run wild at Jacksonville.  Little big man MG Drew might do an impersonation of A Petersen.  The Bolts are still w/o the services of their starting center.  The Jags defense will take advantage of this at home w/ the 12th man's help.

Jacksonville -3

Minnesota -5.5 vs Oakland

The Vikings have the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball.  Their opportunistic defense will feast on Mr Turnover himself.

Minnesota -5.5

week 11 continued

Cincinnati -3 vs Arizona    the Cards offense is plenty good enough to make this a game. Ken Whisenhunt know's the Bengals well from his days with the Stillers.  I can't see the Bengals holding the Cards to under 24 points. The Bengals could not score a TD last week , they have no chance of winning this game if they fail to convert in the redzone. The Cards on the other hand, are one of the best teams in the league on offense in the redzone going up against one  the weak Bungle defense.  The Bengals will self destruct once the Cards open up a two score lead and start scoring at will. 

Arizona + 3

Minnesota -5.5 vs Oakland   the Raiders offense is in for another long game vs the Vikings defense in the noisy metrodome.  I can't see Da Raiders scoring 10 points.   the Vikings will eventually grind out 20 plus points at home on the abysmal Raiders.   

Minnesota -5.5

WEEK !! PREGAME

Philly - 10 vs Miami   the Iggles don't have the best track record of covering as home favs vs AFC teams but this game looks worthy of a play. J Beck is making his first career start, on the road no less.  the Eagles aren't in a position to overlook any team on their schedule. the only way the fish have a chance of covering is with big plays on defense and special teams.  I can't see Miami being the kind of 10 point underdog that jumps out to a two score lead midway through the first quarter. Jim Johnson doesn't like to play prevent defense so a late backdoor cover by Miami has less chance of happening.

St Louis -3 at San Fran  the Niners have won 3 out of the last 4 vs their division rivals. the Rams will have no qualms about kicking the struggling niners when they're down.  this one is a  gimme,   

                                      my pick of the week

Early line report week 10 NFL games

The second half of the season is the time to get after it. A lot of the guesswork is over since most teams are starting to show their true colors. This week has more division games on the plate than I have ever seen on one Sunday. It's best to use a little caution seeing how division games tend to bring out the most surprises in regards to upsets and the like. On to the games

Arizona -1.5 vs Detroit 45  I loved Detroit until I saw the consensus report on wagerline. Detroiy is up to 80%
of all picks made on this game. Detroit looks almost too good to be true as marginal dogs vs the struggling Arizona offense of late. I think the oddsmakers are trying to envoke memories of the Cards big wins over Seattle and Pitt with this line.  Well , the Cards home win vs division rival Seattle wasn't too surprising and it took a punt return for a TD to put them over the top vs Pitt.  I recommend sticking with Detroit anyway. They have looked very legit recently, it appears they have found something that works on defense and have cut down on the mental mistakes that lead to big plays for the opposition. Detroit's front seven is plenty capable of harrassing the immobile K Warner. He won't have the time for many deep throws. On offense, Detroit's ability to go 4 wide and spread the Cards out looks like a mismatch. Kitna is playing the best football of his career.

Detroit +1.5    if the Panthers can win at Arizona, the surging Lions can pull out a win as long as the zebras don't get too involved.

Tenn -3 vs Jacksonville 37     the under looks like such an obvious call that I will have to pass on it. In a game that looks full of uncertainty, the one thing that is a given is that the winner of the game straight up will cover as well. It's hard not to like Tennessee at home for the 2nd week in a row vs a team on the road for 3 weeks in a row. I like the Titans to win by a bigger margin than expected. Jacksonville probably won't travel well.

Tenn -3

Carolina -4.5 vs Atlanta  bad offensive teams don't make for good favorites. The only reason the Panthers are sizable favorites is because Atlanta is one of the publics least favorite teams this year.

Atlanta +4.5

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