Beezerspalace

Week 10 continued

Chicago -3.5 at Oakland   The monsters of the midway appear to be falling into full blown superbowl loser mode. Do not expect them to blow out Da Raiders. It's hard to imagine but the possibility of an upset is not out of the question. Griese could easily cough up a turnover or two that makes the final score closer than the game actually was. Oakland is sure to put up a good fight in attempt not to lose two in a row at home.

Oakland +3.5

Indy - 3.5 at San Diego (48.50   the Colts will win this game. Will they cover is an almost impossible question to answer.  The under doesn't sound too bad when you think about how much both teams are going to run the ball.   The Colts are on the road minus a few weapons , they aren't going to score a ton of points in this situation. The Colts defense will win this game for them.  The Chargers, particularly the Turner and Rivers factor aren't wily enough to find a way to torch the steady Colts defense.

under 48.5      

Early line report week 10 NFL games

The second half of the season is the time to get after it. A lot of the guesswork is over since most teams are starting to show their true colors. This week has more division games on the plate than I have ever seen on one Sunday. It's best to use a little caution seeing how division games tend to bring out the most surprises in regards to upsets and the like. On to the games

Arizona -1.5 vs Detroit 45  I loved Detroit until I saw the consensus report on wagerline. Detroiy is up to 80%
of all picks made on this game. Detroit looks almost too good to be true as marginal dogs vs the struggling Arizona offense of late. I think the oddsmakers are trying to envoke memories of the Cards big wins over Seattle and Pitt with this line.  Well , the Cards home win vs division rival Seattle wasn't too surprising and it took a punt return for a TD to put them over the top vs Pitt.  I recommend sticking with Detroit anyway. They have looked very legit recently, it appears they have found something that works on defense and have cut down on the mental mistakes that lead to big plays for the opposition. Detroit's front seven is plenty capable of harrassing the immobile K Warner. He won't have the time for many deep throws. On offense, Detroit's ability to go 4 wide and spread the Cards out looks like a mismatch. Kitna is playing the best football of his career.

Detroit +1.5    if the Panthers can win at Arizona, the surging Lions can pull out a win as long as the zebras don't get too involved.

Tenn -3 vs Jacksonville 37     the under looks like such an obvious call that I will have to pass on it. In a game that looks full of uncertainty, the one thing that is a given is that the winner of the game straight up will cover as well. It's hard not to like Tennessee at home for the 2nd week in a row vs a team on the road for 3 weeks in a row. I like the Titans to win by a bigger margin than expected. Jacksonville probably won't travel well.

Tenn -3

Carolina -4.5 vs Atlanta  bad offensive teams don't make for good favorites. The only reason the Panthers are sizable favorites is because Atlanta is one of the publics least favorite teams this year.

Atlanta +4.5

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All you can eat pigskin turnover special in Piggsburgh

Pittsburgh -9 vs Baltimore (36)    take the Ravens and the over and the worst you can do is push.  I wouldn't touch this game unless I really needed to get even for the weekend.

Other games for week 9

Other games -- I don't have that much confidence in these picks but just in case you value my opinion, here goes:

Detroit -3 vs Denver

My alter ego, Mr. Obvious, who thinks a lot like John Q Public, likes the Lions.  For all intents and purposes, it looks like the Lions should cover but the potential for a blindsiding upset is there.  The Broncos offense has played well the last 2 weeks vs the Steelers and Packers.  The Lions defense is far worse than these defenses and Jay Cutler may tear them to shreds.

Denver +3

Cleveland -1 1/2 vs Seattle

I don't have enough confidence in either team to call this one.  I do think it will be a slightly more defensive game than expected.  The Seahawks defense has played well in every game but 1 - vs New Orleans.  They are plenty capable of holding the Browns to under 20 pts.  On offense the Seahawks will take the 4 yards a carry the Browns will give them.  They are going to try to avoid getting into a shootout as much as possible.

under 46 1/2

It will be close, but I see the total of this game falling short of the over by 4 or 5 points.

San Diego - 7 1/2 at Minnesota

Obvious favorites aren't my favorite teams to go w/ but he Vikings are so challenged on offense that they leave you no other choice

San Diego -7.5

With Indy on the horizon next week, the Chargers are looking ahead and aren't a good choice to me but Mr Obvious says the Vikings are locks

New England -5 at Indy

I like the points in the showdown.  The only games that haven't been close in this rivalry has been in bad weather at New England in January.  The more things change, the more they stay the same.  This will be a close game.

I like the Colts rushing attack vs the Pats defense which hasn't been truly tested this season.  If you watched the Pats/Browns game, you have to agree w/ me that the Browns offense showed that there are a few chinks in the armour of the Pats defense.  The Browns also forced the Pats to punt 7 or 8 times.  The only reason the Browns lost by 17 point is b/c of mental errors as a result of being psyched out vs the Pats.  Well, there's one thing you can count on here and that's that the Colts aren't afraid of the Pats.

Colts +5

I recommend watching this one for the fun of it.

The Colts will win the time of possession battle and their pass defense is the best in the league.

Atlanta -3 vs San Fran  37.5      the under has some appeal in this match up of offensive powerhouses. Even when the Niners were considered descent on offense last season they were a possession, run heavy low scoring type of offense.  The Falcons O line is in shambles, they were having trouble before they lost W Gandy and a few other key players on offense. Its hard to imagine them lighting up the scoreboard anytime soon.

under 37

Week 9 NFL Kickoff

Today's games are difficult to figure if you think about them too much.  There seems to be quite a few coin flip games that could go either way.

I suggest sticking w/ the underdogs on this any given Sunday that could be full of surprises.

Buffalo -1 vs Cincinnati

This match up reminds me of the Bills / Packers game at Buffalo last season.  The Bills beat the Pack 24-10 despite being out gained on offense by 243 yds.  All the passing yards C Palmer can muster won't mean a thing if the Bengals can't convert in the red zone.

Bills -1

We are going to see just how bad the Bengals really are.

Tennessee -4 vs Carolina

The Panthers run heavy possession style of offense is in for a long day at Tennessee.  I will be surprised if they score more than 13 points.  The Titans will eventually grind out 20-24 points on a tired Carolina defense in the 2nd half.

Tennessee -4

Kansas City -2 1/2 vs Green Bay

The last decent team the Chiefs played beat them soundly, Jacksonville.  The Pack is in a bad spot on the road again after Monday Night's game at Denver.  If anything, I think their defense will suffer the most from this.  The Chiefs offense may play better than expected w/ the return of Priest Holmes.  The Packers pass offense should thrive vs the Chiefs senior citizen secondary.

Over 37 1/2

Going out on a bit of a limb but I really think this could be a shootout.

New Orleans -3 1/2 vs Jacksonville

I'm not impressed by the Saints turnaround vs some weak teams.  I like the Jag's defense and rushing attack to keep this game close at the worst.  I give the Jags a good chance to win straight up.

Jacksonville + 3 1/2

Asking the Saints to win 4 games in a row is too much to ask for from this middle of the pack team.

MNF Mr Monday Nite vs Jay Cut his own throat Cutler

Denver -3.5 vs Green Bay   

I fell asleep in the first quarter of Denver's Sunday night game last week, so I have no clue if Denver is really coming around or if they got lucky.

So, all I can do is make an educated guess on tonight's game.  It appears that both team's defenses should have the advantage.  The Packers running game isn't strong enough to exploit the weakness of Denver's defense.  The Packer's defense is solid, it's hard to imagine the Broncos scoring more than 20 points in their typical Monday night mode.  They have a history of laying eggs on Monday night.  The points are the way to go.  Every Broncos game has been close this season except one, a beatin they took from the Chargers.  I can't see the Broncos getting too far ahead of the rested Packers if at all.  This game has a good chance of being won by a last second field goal.

Packers +3.5  take the points in a low scoring game

Early line report week 9 NFL games

Atlanta -3 vs San Fran  (37)    the Niners are truly pathetic on offense. The Falcons aren't gonig to take a lot of chances on offense knowing they can win without scoring many points. Bad teams like the Falcons don't make for good favorites but the under looks worthy of a wager.

under 37         

Pittsburgh -7.5 vs Baltimore    who is trying to fool who here.  The Ravens held the Steelers to seven points combined in both games of this division rivalry series last season. The Steelers aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut when Fast Willie gets shut down.  The Ravens are healing up on offense and should be able to score the ten points necessary to cover this line. The Steelers aren't going to score more than 17 points in an ugly game.

Ravens + 7.5

New Orleans -3.5 vs Jacksonville       I'll take my chances on the Jaguars defense and rushing attack vs the Saints. The Jaguars are capable of just plain ole overpowering the Saints. This is a classic match up of the last few seasons. AFC vs NFC   The Saints were 1-3 vs the AFC north last season. The team that beat them by the largest margin, Baltimore, is very similar to the Jaguars.  The Jaguars physical style of play will be the difference. I see them covering at the worst with a descent chance to win straight up.

Jaguars +3.5

Buffalo -2.5 vs Cincinnati (44)   One of these teams will score over 30 points and win by 10 but I can't see calling it.  The over seems like a descent play when you consider the matchups.  Bengals offense will score on the Bills and the Bengals defense on the road isn't going to shut anyone down.

over 44

these are the teams and/or games that appeal to me after my first look at this week's lines. 

Kickoff NFL Week 8

I just want to reiterate my confidence in my three favorite games today before throwin' in a few bits and pieces on other games I feel like I'm starting to get a handle on.

Pittsburgh -3 1/2 vs Cincinnati

This is a perfect match up for the Steelers.  Take the team w/ the better defense going up against an overrated offense and no defense.  The Bengals will surprise me if they score more than 20 points today.  C. Palmer will be sacked at least 4 times and the Bengals won't rush for 70 yards as a team.

Willie Parker might go for over 200 yards vs the woe Bengal defense.

Steelers -3 1/2     I love 'em today.

Chicago -5 vs Detroit 

There will be no record setting comebacks in the rematch.  The Bears offense might resemble the Pats today vs the Detroit secondary.  It should be a fun one to watch for people who like fights between plays.

Bears -5

Cleveland / St Louis over 43 1/2

I wouldn't pick on the Rams as home dogs vs an AFC team.  The dome in St. Louis is a tough venue for teams that don't visit often.  Taking the Rams is too big of a leap of faith as well.  I see both teams scoring 20 something points.

Over 43 1/2

taking stabs at other games

Tennessee -7 vs Oakland

When I picture the Raiders on the road vs one of the top run defenses and pass rushes in the league, I can't see them scoring 13 points.  The Titans defense may score more points than the Raiders.

The Raiders don't have a QB as good as Sage Rosethal who can throw up 30 points on them.    The Titans may get off to a slow start but I see them dominating the second half of this game.

Titans - 7

San Diego - 9 1/2 vs Houston

If the Chargers have any heart at all, they will explode in an emotional game no one will ever forget in San Diego today.  I think the Bolts will take it as a personal challenge to show their true colors in the face of the adversity. 

From an x and o standpoint, the Texans offensive line is going to be their achilles heal once again.  On the road their problems will only be magnified.

San Diego -9 1/2

Homedogs that might bite you:

New Orleans -2 1/2 at San Fran

I can't see taking the Niners but don't go thinkin the Saints are a safe bet either.  This will not be a repeat of the Saints 34 -10 win last yr at New Orleans.  The Niners defense is improved from last season and they are a tough unit at home.  The Saints defense is the softest defense Frank Gore will see in over a month.  The Niners are going to fight to the death in an effort to stop a 4 game losing streak.  Pass on this one.

Philly -1 1/2 at Minnesota

I like the home team.  They have the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball.  The Eagles will struggle in the redzone on offense and there's a good chance they will be gashed by the Vikings running game.   Holcomb may come off the bench to lead a rally if necessary.

Vikings  +1.5 - The Eagles are mere shadows of a few seasons past.

week 8 continued

Its still too early for any final decisions without a descent weather report and a few other things but these are the team's that I'm leaning toward for the weekend.  After two bad week's in a row , trust me when I tell you I'm going to tighten it up and go with the quality over quantity approach. There is plenty of football left to win the war this season. 

Pittsburgh -4 vs Cincinnati 48.5      i liked the Steelers before I knew  W Andersen won't be playing RT for the orange and black on Sunday.  read my lock alert post from Monday.  Now I can't see the Bengals having any chance at all of making it interesting.  Here's my point, the Bengals offense has sputtered vs the better defenses they have faced. The Pats held them to 13 points and they were equally inept vs Baltimore despite winning that game.  They will struggle to protect C Palmer , K Watson won't run for 70 yds and the turnovers will follow once the Steelers get a two score lead. 

Pittsburgh -4   

Chicago -5 vs Detroit    methinks the Bears are going to'" trow a beatin "on the Lions on the grass at Chicago. Throw out the letdown game vs Minnesota . The Vikings caught the Bears in a bad spot after the Bear's big win at G Bay.  The Bears have just finished a pretty tough stretch of 3 division games followed by a tough outing at Philly. The only thing standing in their way from 4-4 heading into their bye week and a late season playoff run is the Lions who are two TDs better at home.  The bad Lions are the ones I'm expecting on both sides of the ball. The Bears offense is much better than they were the last time these division rivals played in Detroit.   The Bears have a score to settle and will play with a lot of emotion.  B Griese will look like Jason Campbell, I mean D McNabb or any other qb who gets to face the Lions outdoors.

Bears -5

St Louis / Cleveland over 43.5 

       these are my best three suggestions for Sunday   

WEEK 8 projections

Tennessee -7.5 vs Oakland  40.5      picture turnover prone D Culpepper trying to deal with  the Titans front seven at Tennessee. The chances of the Titans scoring a defensive TD or two are pretty good. Otherwise I would say the points and the under look like descent plays.  I like the under more than either team.
      I can't see the Titans calling an aggressive game on offense vs a team they think is incapable of scoring a lot of points on them. They probably won't take too many chances on offense which means a lot of running the ball in attempt to win the field position battle.  They will be happy to play this type of ball control game and force the Raiders to beat their defense.   I think the Raiders have no chance of having a successful game on offense vs a good Titans defense.

under 40.5

Indy - 6  at Carolina   44      I like the under in this huge trap game for the Colts. The Colts will try to kill the clock and make this a short game with long sustained drives in attempt to conserve their energy for next week's game vs New England.  They don't have that much gas in the tank after Monday nights physical ,division road game at Jacksonville.  Conversely, the Panthers are rested and will be sky high for the challenge of defending their pride in front of the hometown fans. That not enough reason to put your "trust " in the Panthers who will struggle to score on the Colts defense.  A monster game from Steve Smith is the Panthers only hope of making this a game provided the Panthers can keep Vinny upright.  That doesn't sound easy so I'm sure the Panthers will do their share of trying to establish the run which will keep the clock running and the Colts offense off the field if they are lucky enough to have success running the ball.   The Panthers haven't scored a lot of points on a good defense in a long time and the prospect of them getting healthy vs the Colts don't look good..

under 44            the chances of a freak play ruining your wager on the Colts are very real.  The Colts will probably cover but not by much. 

Cleveland -3 at St Louis   43.5     how can this game not end up a shootout?  The Browns are capable of scoring 30 points on the Rams and the Rams are back at home vs the worst defense they will face in over a month in attempt to get one in the win column.  The Rams scored 31 at home vs the Cards and should be good to score 20 something on the Browns. The team with the ball last will win this shootout.

over 43.5o