Beezerspalace

Week 12 update

Kansas City - 4.5 vs Oakland  at first glance I didn't care for this game very much but after sifting through some stats and trends it was easy to see that the Chiefs are worthy of a modest wager or adding them to a parlay.  the chefs have an excellent track record in their 2nd div home game and as home favs when the O/U total is less than 35.

KC - 4.5

Seattle -3 at St Louis   (45) this is a "throw out the records div rivalry game . I would not assume the Seachickens will win easily at St Louis. It looks like it will be a long game considering how both teams are pass heavy on offense. This opens up the door for turnovers,big plays and the clock stopping for incomplete passes. By the time the 4th quarter comes around, both defenses may be so tired that it turns into a wild shootout at the end of the game.

over 45

Week 12

Tennessee -1.5 vs Cincinnati {46.5}   this is the easiest call for me this Sunday. Tennessee's rushing attack will thrive vs the Bungles hapless defense and that's putting it mildly. The Bungles will choke on offense once they realize they have to score on every possession to keep pace with V Young and Co.

Tenn -1.5   they are damn near lock status    over 46.5

Cleveland-3 vs Houston  {51}     barring bad weather or windy conditions, the total for this game couldn't be high enough to stop this track meet from going over. the over is a safer play than either team but if forced to call this one, I would go with Houston and the points.

over 51 check the weather before making any decisions

San Diego - 8.5 vs Baltimore  {38.5)   the under almost makes too much sense to me for this game. the Bolts don't have the wideouts or a good enough QB to exploit Baltimore's woes in their secondary and no one has run on Baltimore with huge success. On offense ,Baltimore will play like,well,like they have for most of this season at San Diego. They will struggle to score 17 points. The Bolts will use a conservative gameplan knowing it won't take many points to win the game.

under 38.5

New England -24 vs Philly  J Feeley, are you kidding me. the best thing about the Pats is that they are really enjoying stomping the guts out of the rest of the league as a result of being called cheaters for something that most teams do or have done themselves. The Pats will score their usual 47 points while J Feeley tries to get a feel for playing a legit team  after a long layoff.  the Iggles will be lucky to score 13 points at New England

New England -24 there's a reason this line is so huge and its because the oddsmakers are trying to run you off this epic run by New England.  don't be scared,even H Evans and K Eckle will put a few points on the board late in this game.

Turkey Day

There's no locks on the plate this Thanksgiving, what a shame.  Not to worry , you can still find a way to carve up a few bucks out of today's action. Take the home team in all 3 games for the same amount and you will do no worse than 2 out of 3 ain't bad.

Mile High Coin Flip

Denver -2 vs Tennessee

I feel sorry for the guy who tries to get even on this game.  After some serious thought, I am starting to get a clear picture on this game.  The Titans are the pick, they are more battle tested.  In a game where TD's will be hard to come by, this all going to come down to one play.  Vince Young is the guy I want my money on in this situation over Cutler every time. 

Tennessee has the more consistent running game and the better run defense even w/o Haynesworth.  The Broncos can pile up all the yardage they want but will continue to struggle in the redzone.  Denver is going to have to lean on Cutler more than Tennessee having to put the game on V. Young's shoulders.  This game will be decided by turnovers and the Titans get the edge in that dept.

Tennessee +2

Week 11 kickoff

Cincinnati -3 vs Arizona

This will be a close game at the worst that the Cards have a good chance of winning.  The Bengals 3 wins are 2 vs Baltimore and the other coming vs the Jets.  What a short memory the public has.  Two wks ago, they got destroyed by Buffalo.

Arizona +3     highly recommended.

New England -16 vs Buffalo

The Bills may put 17 points on the board.  The Pats are good for 35 at the minimum. 

New England -16

Jacksonville -3 vs San Diego

Take the home team.  Philip Rivers doesn't have enough weapons at WR to spread out the Jags like the Saints did.  LT is going to run wild at Jacksonville.  Little big man MG Drew might do an impersonation of A Petersen.  The Bolts are still w/o the services of their starting center.  The Jags defense will take advantage of this at home w/ the 12th man's help.

Jacksonville -3

Minnesota -5.5 vs Oakland

The Vikings have the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball.  Their opportunistic defense will feast on Mr Turnover himself.

Minnesota -5.5

week 11 continued

Cincinnati -3 vs Arizona    the Cards offense is plenty good enough to make this a game. Ken Whisenhunt know's the Bengals well from his days with the Stillers.  I can't see the Bengals holding the Cards to under 24 points. The Bengals could not score a TD last week , they have no chance of winning this game if they fail to convert in the redzone. The Cards on the other hand, are one of the best teams in the league on offense in the redzone going up against one  the weak Bungle defense.  The Bengals will self destruct once the Cards open up a two score lead and start scoring at will. 

Arizona + 3

Minnesota -5.5 vs Oakland   the Raiders offense is in for another long game vs the Vikings defense in the noisy metrodome.  I can't see Da Raiders scoring 10 points.   the Vikings will eventually grind out 20 plus points at home on the abysmal Raiders.   

Minnesota -5.5

WEEK !! PREGAME

Philly - 10 vs Miami   the Iggles don't have the best track record of covering as home favs vs AFC teams but this game looks worthy of a play. J Beck is making his first career start, on the road no less.  the Eagles aren't in a position to overlook any team on their schedule. the only way the fish have a chance of covering is with big plays on defense and special teams.  I can't see Miami being the kind of 10 point underdog that jumps out to a two score lead midway through the first quarter. Jim Johnson doesn't like to play prevent defense so a late backdoor cover by Miami has less chance of happening.

St Louis -3 at San Fran  the Niners have won 3 out of the last 4 vs their division rivals. the Rams will have no qualms about kicking the struggling niners when they're down.  this one is a  gimme,   

                                      my pick of the week

Week 10 continued

Chicago -3.5 at Oakland   The monsters of the midway appear to be falling into full blown superbowl loser mode. Do not expect them to blow out Da Raiders. It's hard to imagine but the possibility of an upset is not out of the question. Griese could easily cough up a turnover or two that makes the final score closer than the game actually was. Oakland is sure to put up a good fight in attempt not to lose two in a row at home.

Oakland +3.5

Indy - 3.5 at San Diego (48.50   the Colts will win this game. Will they cover is an almost impossible question to answer.  The under doesn't sound too bad when you think about how much both teams are going to run the ball.   The Colts are on the road minus a few weapons , they aren't going to score a ton of points in this situation. The Colts defense will win this game for them.  The Chargers, particularly the Turner and Rivers factor aren't wily enough to find a way to torch the steady Colts defense.

under 48.5      

Early line report week 10 NFL games

The second half of the season is the time to get after it. A lot of the guesswork is over since most teams are starting to show their true colors. This week has more division games on the plate than I have ever seen on one Sunday. It's best to use a little caution seeing how division games tend to bring out the most surprises in regards to upsets and the like. On to the games

Arizona -1.5 vs Detroit 45  I loved Detroit until I saw the consensus report on wagerline. Detroiy is up to 80%
of all picks made on this game. Detroit looks almost too good to be true as marginal dogs vs the struggling Arizona offense of late. I think the oddsmakers are trying to envoke memories of the Cards big wins over Seattle and Pitt with this line.  Well , the Cards home win vs division rival Seattle wasn't too surprising and it took a punt return for a TD to put them over the top vs Pitt.  I recommend sticking with Detroit anyway. They have looked very legit recently, it appears they have found something that works on defense and have cut down on the mental mistakes that lead to big plays for the opposition. Detroit's front seven is plenty capable of harrassing the immobile K Warner. He won't have the time for many deep throws. On offense, Detroit's ability to go 4 wide and spread the Cards out looks like a mismatch. Kitna is playing the best football of his career.

Detroit +1.5    if the Panthers can win at Arizona, the surging Lions can pull out a win as long as the zebras don't get too involved.

Tenn -3 vs Jacksonville 37     the under looks like such an obvious call that I will have to pass on it. In a game that looks full of uncertainty, the one thing that is a given is that the winner of the game straight up will cover as well. It's hard not to like Tennessee at home for the 2nd week in a row vs a team on the road for 3 weeks in a row. I like the Titans to win by a bigger margin than expected. Jacksonville probably won't travel well.

Tenn -3

Carolina -4.5 vs Atlanta  bad offensive teams don't make for good favorites. The only reason the Panthers are sizable favorites is because Atlanta is one of the publics least favorite teams this year.

Atlanta +4.5

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All you can eat pigskin turnover special in Piggsburgh

Pittsburgh -9 vs Baltimore (36)    take the Ravens and the over and the worst you can do is push.  I wouldn't touch this game unless I really needed to get even for the weekend.