Beezerspalace

MNF Mr Monday Nite vs Jay Cut his own throat Cutler

Denver -3.5 vs Green Bay   

I fell asleep in the first quarter of Denver's Sunday night game last week, so I have no clue if Denver is really coming around or if they got lucky.

So, all I can do is make an educated guess on tonight's game.  It appears that both team's defenses should have the advantage.  The Packers running game isn't strong enough to exploit the weakness of Denver's defense.  The Packer's defense is solid, it's hard to imagine the Broncos scoring more than 20 points in their typical Monday night mode.  They have a history of laying eggs on Monday night.  The points are the way to go.  Every Broncos game has been close this season except one, a beatin they took from the Chargers.  I can't see the Broncos getting too far ahead of the rested Packers if at all.  This game has a good chance of being won by a last second field goal.

Packers +3.5  take the points in a low scoring game

Early line report week 9 NFL games

Atlanta -3 vs San Fran  (37)    the Niners are truly pathetic on offense. The Falcons aren't gonig to take a lot of chances on offense knowing they can win without scoring many points. Bad teams like the Falcons don't make for good favorites but the under looks worthy of a wager.

under 37         

Pittsburgh -7.5 vs Baltimore    who is trying to fool who here.  The Ravens held the Steelers to seven points combined in both games of this division rivalry series last season. The Steelers aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut when Fast Willie gets shut down.  The Ravens are healing up on offense and should be able to score the ten points necessary to cover this line. The Steelers aren't going to score more than 17 points in an ugly game.

Ravens + 7.5

New Orleans -3.5 vs Jacksonville       I'll take my chances on the Jaguars defense and rushing attack vs the Saints. The Jaguars are capable of just plain ole overpowering the Saints. This is a classic match up of the last few seasons. AFC vs NFC   The Saints were 1-3 vs the AFC north last season. The team that beat them by the largest margin, Baltimore, is very similar to the Jaguars.  The Jaguars physical style of play will be the difference. I see them covering at the worst with a descent chance to win straight up.

Jaguars +3.5

Buffalo -2.5 vs Cincinnati (44)   One of these teams will score over 30 points and win by 10 but I can't see calling it.  The over seems like a descent play when you consider the matchups.  Bengals offense will score on the Bills and the Bengals defense on the road isn't going to shut anyone down.

over 44

these are the teams and/or games that appeal to me after my first look at this week's lines. 

Kickoff NFL Week 8

I just want to reiterate my confidence in my three favorite games today before throwin' in a few bits and pieces on other games I feel like I'm starting to get a handle on.

Pittsburgh -3 1/2 vs Cincinnati

This is a perfect match up for the Steelers.  Take the team w/ the better defense going up against an overrated offense and no defense.  The Bengals will surprise me if they score more than 20 points today.  C. Palmer will be sacked at least 4 times and the Bengals won't rush for 70 yards as a team.

Willie Parker might go for over 200 yards vs the woe Bengal defense.

Steelers -3 1/2     I love 'em today.

Chicago -5 vs Detroit 

There will be no record setting comebacks in the rematch.  The Bears offense might resemble the Pats today vs the Detroit secondary.  It should be a fun one to watch for people who like fights between plays.

Bears -5

Cleveland / St Louis over 43 1/2

I wouldn't pick on the Rams as home dogs vs an AFC team.  The dome in St. Louis is a tough venue for teams that don't visit often.  Taking the Rams is too big of a leap of faith as well.  I see both teams scoring 20 something points.

Over 43 1/2

taking stabs at other games

Tennessee -7 vs Oakland

When I picture the Raiders on the road vs one of the top run defenses and pass rushes in the league, I can't see them scoring 13 points.  The Titans defense may score more points than the Raiders.

The Raiders don't have a QB as good as Sage Rosethal who can throw up 30 points on them.    The Titans may get off to a slow start but I see them dominating the second half of this game.

Titans - 7

San Diego - 9 1/2 vs Houston

If the Chargers have any heart at all, they will explode in an emotional game no one will ever forget in San Diego today.  I think the Bolts will take it as a personal challenge to show their true colors in the face of the adversity. 

From an x and o standpoint, the Texans offensive line is going to be their achilles heal once again.  On the road their problems will only be magnified.

San Diego -9 1/2

Homedogs that might bite you:

New Orleans -2 1/2 at San Fran

I can't see taking the Niners but don't go thinkin the Saints are a safe bet either.  This will not be a repeat of the Saints 34 -10 win last yr at New Orleans.  The Niners defense is improved from last season and they are a tough unit at home.  The Saints defense is the softest defense Frank Gore will see in over a month.  The Niners are going to fight to the death in an effort to stop a 4 game losing streak.  Pass on this one.

Philly -1 1/2 at Minnesota

I like the home team.  They have the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball.  The Eagles will struggle in the redzone on offense and there's a good chance they will be gashed by the Vikings running game.   Holcomb may come off the bench to lead a rally if necessary.

Vikings  +1.5 - The Eagles are mere shadows of a few seasons past.

week 8 continued

Its still too early for any final decisions without a descent weather report and a few other things but these are the team's that I'm leaning toward for the weekend.  After two bad week's in a row , trust me when I tell you I'm going to tighten it up and go with the quality over quantity approach. There is plenty of football left to win the war this season. 

Pittsburgh -4 vs Cincinnati 48.5      i liked the Steelers before I knew  W Andersen won't be playing RT for the orange and black on Sunday.  read my lock alert post from Monday.  Now I can't see the Bengals having any chance at all of making it interesting.  Here's my point, the Bengals offense has sputtered vs the better defenses they have faced. The Pats held them to 13 points and they were equally inept vs Baltimore despite winning that game.  They will struggle to protect C Palmer , K Watson won't run for 70 yds and the turnovers will follow once the Steelers get a two score lead. 

Pittsburgh -4   

Chicago -5 vs Detroit    methinks the Bears are going to'" trow a beatin "on the Lions on the grass at Chicago. Throw out the letdown game vs Minnesota . The Vikings caught the Bears in a bad spot after the Bear's big win at G Bay.  The Bears have just finished a pretty tough stretch of 3 division games followed by a tough outing at Philly. The only thing standing in their way from 4-4 heading into their bye week and a late season playoff run is the Lions who are two TDs better at home.  The bad Lions are the ones I'm expecting on both sides of the ball. The Bears offense is much better than they were the last time these division rivals played in Detroit.   The Bears have a score to settle and will play with a lot of emotion.  B Griese will look like Jason Campbell, I mean D McNabb or any other qb who gets to face the Lions outdoors.

Bears -5

St Louis / Cleveland over 43.5 

       these are my best three suggestions for Sunday   

WEEK 8 projections

Tennessee -7.5 vs Oakland  40.5      picture turnover prone D Culpepper trying to deal with  the Titans front seven at Tennessee. The chances of the Titans scoring a defensive TD or two are pretty good. Otherwise I would say the points and the under look like descent plays.  I like the under more than either team.
      I can't see the Titans calling an aggressive game on offense vs a team they think is incapable of scoring a lot of points on them. They probably won't take too many chances on offense which means a lot of running the ball in attempt to win the field position battle.  They will be happy to play this type of ball control game and force the Raiders to beat their defense.   I think the Raiders have no chance of having a successful game on offense vs a good Titans defense.

under 40.5

Indy - 6  at Carolina   44      I like the under in this huge trap game for the Colts. The Colts will try to kill the clock and make this a short game with long sustained drives in attempt to conserve their energy for next week's game vs New England.  They don't have that much gas in the tank after Monday nights physical ,division road game at Jacksonville.  Conversely, the Panthers are rested and will be sky high for the challenge of defending their pride in front of the hometown fans. That not enough reason to put your "trust " in the Panthers who will struggle to score on the Colts defense.  A monster game from Steve Smith is the Panthers only hope of making this a game provided the Panthers can keep Vinny upright.  That doesn't sound easy so I'm sure the Panthers will do their share of trying to establish the run which will keep the clock running and the Colts offense off the field if they are lucky enough to have success running the ball.   The Panthers haven't scored a lot of points on a good defense in a long time and the prospect of them getting healthy vs the Colts don't look good..

under 44            the chances of a freak play ruining your wager on the Colts are very real.  The Colts will probably cover but not by much. 

Cleveland -3 at St Louis   43.5     how can this game not end up a shootout?  The Browns are capable of scoring 30 points on the Rams and the Rams are back at home vs the worst defense they will face in over a month in attempt to get one in the win column.  The Rams scored 31 at home vs the Cards and should be good to score 20 something on the Browns. The team with the ball last will win this shootout.

over 43.5o

The Early Report week 8

I'm going to start getting my picks out earlier in the week before I have the chance to confuse myself with too much information.   Here are some of the first thoughts that went through my head after checking next Sunday's games and lines.

Cleveland -3 at St Louis  (43.5)   the Rams have been great home dogs vs AFC teams for the last 5 years or so.  I wouldn't get on the Rams but it won't surprise me to see the Rams show a lot more life on offense at home vs a mediocre Browns defense.  The Rams have looked bad but don't forget to consider they have just played at Seattle,at Baltimore,Arizona,at Dallas,at Tampa Bay.  A tough stretch of road games vs four good defenses for a team with so many injuries on their O-line.  The one bright spot in this stretch was a 31 point output at home vs the Cardinals. I see a similar type of game happening in St Louis this Sunday.

over 43.5

Minnesota -1 vs Philadelphia   The mismatch of this matchup that stands out to me is the Eagles O-line vs the Vikings D-line.  The Eagles aren't going to light up the scoreboard at Minnesota. The Vikings will get their running game going in the second half when the Eagles start to wear down, possibly earlier vs an Eagles Def playing out of their element. (not at home or on the road vs the NFC east). 

Minnesota +1

Chicago -5 vs Detroit        It doesn't seem like a bad idea to go against  the Lions until  they  prove they can  play on the road . The Bears offense is good for 24 points at the minimum.  Kitna will be running for his life for most of the game.

Chicago -5

Lock Alert Steelers vs Bengals week 8

The opening line on the Bengals/Steelers game is way off.  Are we supposed to think the Bengals are back after a home win vs the struggling Jets. If you're going to make that assumption you might as well write off the Steelers after they lost to the Broncos.  The line on this game is designed to trick all the idiots out there who can't remember anything past the previous Sunday.   
        The Bengals offense looked good vs the Jets defense which is right up there with the Bengals,Dolphins,Browns and Lions in the running for the league's worst defense.  They are in for a struggle vs the Steelers top ranked defense. They will be lucky to score 20 points on an angry team coming off a tough loss.  The Steelers will have no problems getting fast Willie up and running for 130 plus yards. The Steelers usually win big when this happens and it will.  The Patriots ran at will on the Bengals and methinks the same will happen in this matchup.  The thing I like about the Steelers the most is that they will be all business after losing last night.   

  The Steelers are the locks of the century at -1  ,  get on them before the rest of the world does to get the best line possible.   I like the Steelers to win by 10 points at the minimum so don't sweat if your unscrupulous bookie makes you pay a little more for the Steelers.

MERRY CHRISTMAS

Week 7 update

The theme for today's games should be, nobody likes to lose. in what appears to be a day full of blowouts considering how many big lines are out today.

Before you jump on some of these big favorites think about how much harder you would try the next time you played any game that you played after losing the previous one.  Then think about the mindset of an ultra competitive NFL player.  These guys hate losing more than you. 

Tenn +2 at Houston

Take the Titans in what appears to be a scary game.  It looks like it will be a defensive struggle, my money is on the team w/ the better defense and rushing attack. 

The Texans will struggle in the red zone once again.

Tennessee + 2

NY Giants -9.5 vs San Fran

The Giants have a tendency of going into ball control mode vs inferior opponents.  They are not a good team to lay the points on.  Considering the situation today, the Niners are coming off 3 losses and a bye.  Expect a good game from them, remember, nobody likes to lose.  I expect them to make a game of this based on the amount of urgency they will play with.

The Giants might have a little Monday Night hangover.  I can't see them being "up" for this game.

San Fran +9.5     Even their best effort won't get them anything but a heartbreaking loss, which is good enough for a cover.

New Orleans -9 vs Atlanta

After getting whipped by the Saints twice last yr, me thinks the Falcons have been looking forward to this revenge game for awhile.  Don't forget how bad the Saints defense is before you go thinking they are locks.  Another thing to consider is Atlanta's new style of play under new coach Petrino.  The Falcons will hit some long passes vs the Saints weak secondary.

The Falcons defense has not been terrible vs the pass.  If they contain R Bush on the ground, the Saints may not score the 30 points everyone is expecting.  I have them figured for 27.  The Falcons will put up a better fight than expected and score 20.

Atlanta +9  Over 42.5

  the Jets are my pick of the day

WEEK 7

Cincinnati -6 vs NY Jets (47)  The Bengals defense is running a close second to the Lions for having the worst defense in the league right now.  I would jump on every team in the league minus the Rams and Dolphins getting six points vs these clowns for the rest of the season. The Chiefs had a commanding 27-10 lead before they gave the Bungles all the underneath, let's get this over and kill the clock while you're at it crap. The high powered Bengals offense isn't protecting C Palmer very well, he doesn't have the time to wait on C Johnson's quadruple moves and their running game isn't much either.  The Jets are plenty good enough to make this a competitive game.

New York Jets + 6  over 47

Dallas -9.5 vs Minnesota    The Cowboys are serious letdown material after last week's showdown of the undefeated with popcorn. They will have a hard time getting up for this game now that they know what it's like to play in a big game and lose I might add. This game will seem like work to them compared to all the hype of last week.  The Boys were looking ahead vs Buffalo and are still feeling the effects of last Sunday. Remember that anything less than a Superbowl win is a failure in Big D.   The whole city is panicking  thinking.      How can we beat the Pats in the rematch?   that's a guess  but it wouldn't surprise me if the Dallas players were thinking that far ahead as well.  I can picture TO saying, its ok ,we'll get them in the rematch.  They may get a rematch later in the season but that won't help them focus on a scrappy Vikings team coming into this game with some momentum.   The Vikings aren't locks either but they are the pick .   The over makes the most sense to me , If  Dallas wins big and scores 31 to 35 points. All we need out of the Vikings is 17 pts for an OVER ,   If the Vikings make a game of it , the over looks good to me because the Vikings will need to score 19 pts to cover the typical 28 point output the Boys are good for at home.

over 46.6   take the Vikings as well and the worst you can do is push while standing a good chance to win both wagers.  the over is the safer play than either team

Philly -6 vs Chicago    a make or break game for the Bears, expect a good effort from them. The Eagles are an average team that's had trouble in the trenches vs descent teams. The Bears qualify as descent and can score enough points with Griese at the helm to possibly win the game straight up.The Eagles lack of a clock killing rushing attack which makes it hard for them to put teams away even if they are fortunate enough to have a sizable lead. The Bears will get plenty of chances to make a comeback if things go bad for them early.  I can't see either team getting too far ahead of the other which makes the points the way to go. The Eagles O-line is in shambles so don't count on B Westbrook tearing up the Bears like the Vikings did.

Chicago +6

Washington -7 vs Arizona   the Skins are a lot of people's choice after watching the Cards lay an egg vs Carolina last week. The Cards lost badly because they were not ready to play without Warner or Leinart. A week of practice may be enough for the Cards to at least resemble an NFL team on offense. Rattay came off the bench for the Buccs last year at Chicago and put 28 pts on the board. He led the Buccs to a win the following week at Cleveland.  With Boldin back, the Cards may show more life on offense than most people would think possible vs a good Washington defense.   That's my point, it won't take much to cover the 7 pts because I'm counting on the Redskins offense to play very conservative unless the Cards start scoring enough to force Washington to open up the playbook. Why you ask?   because the Skins play the Pats next week and will try to "show" as little as possible in effort to save some surprises for next week.  Washington is too inconsistent on offense to trust as favorites of -7 in a game sandwiched between the big name Packers and Patriots.on their schedule. the funny thing is that the Washington players are thinking the same thing everyone else is. There is no way we can lose to a team starting a QB that old and recently signed off the couch.  The irony is that the Cards fell for that joke last week.

Cardinals +7    I like them to cover in a low scoring yawner   

Detroit -2 vs Tampa Bay    the oddsmakers are trying to confuse you by making the Lions 2 point favorites. Are you thinking what do they know that I don't that I should know why the Lions have a chance to win this game. Detroit won a couple of  home games last year so I suppose that is why some people see the possibility of them winning. Well. the only teams the Lions can stop are one dimensional running teams that lack a QB capable of exposing the Lions secondary for what it is.   J Garcia and J Galloway should have a big day in what could be a trackmeet. The Buccs are safer than the over because there is a chance of the Buccs defense holding the Lions under 17 points.   The Buccs have been consistent enough this year to make me think they won't let the Lions take their momentum from them.   

Tampa Bay +2    you get the better team and the points

Monday Night Giants vs Falcons

  The only thing that could keep anyone interested in this game is a friendly get even for the weekend wager riding on tonight's game. The Giant's and the under look like your only choices to make a comeback with.  The Falcons are starting an undrafted rookie at left tackle and a backup at right tackle.  I can't see them doing to much on offense.   The Falcons defense is average but not terrible, I can see them wanting to play well  on the  Monday Night stage for all the league to see.   A good defensive effort won't be enough  to make up a 10 point output by Harrington and Co.   
                                                         I would stick with the logical team for this game.   Unless you think the Falcons will score two defensive touchdowns , stick with the GMEN.   The Giants will play conservative on offense unless the Falcons start scoring points which is unlikely.  They are good for an old fashioned blue collar 24 point performance in Atlanta tonight.

Giants -4,5   under  42.5        there have been enough surprises this weekend already.