I'm still smarting from my call on Thursday night's game. I could give you plenty of reasons why my call on the game was so far off but they would be excuses. Who wants to hear them. Looking back on my record from last season tells me the smart thing to do this week is to sit back, watch the games and learn.
In Week 2 of last season, I was 5-0 with all of my 2 star games. I have scrapped my star rating system since but you should know that I only recommended wagers for games w/ 2 or more stars. A 1 star rating meant that the pick was made on the game if I was forced to call it.
Back to today.
Steelers -4.5 vs Browns
I read a very interesting note only a stats and history buff could love. No coach in Steelers history has ever won his very first game. Weird stats like these have a tendency to hold up. The Steelers should win this game. The Browns would shock the world w/ a win, I think they will come up just short. This is going to be a fight to the death kind of game. Still, there are too many question marks on both teams for a wager. I'm just trying to tell everyone to use a little patience and stay away from a potential sucker bet on the Steelers.
Last yr in Week 1 the Dogs covered in 10 out of 16 games. Out of the 6 favorites who covered, 4 of those teams were top notch clubs that ended up having good season. Indy, Chicago, San Diego and Philly. If you're going to take a favorite today, try to stick w/ the very best teams.
There are quite a few bad teams from last season favored today. Some of these teams are going to be improved but figuring that out is guess work at this point. Anyway, the Skins, Texans, Vikings, Raiders all look like bad bets to me. They are all bet at your own risk games. I'm not going to put my stamp of approval on them because I want to have an extremely impressive record vs the spread on my picks at season's end.
Broncos -3.5 at Bills
On the road as favorites early in the season is not the place to wager on the Broncos. Its very hard not to think Broncos D vs JP Losman, what am I waiting for, T Henry is dying to go off vs the team that shipped him for malcontent W. McGahee. I don't have enough confidence in Jay Cutler to say w/ confidence that the Broncos are good for a cover here. M. Shanahan will probably do his best to protect his young QB's confidence for the season. I expect the Bronocos to call a conservative game and make the Bills beat their defense. I don't see the Bills having a good day on offense. Trouble is, this could be a game that is not near as close as the score indicates.
Jaguars -7 vs Titans
All you need to know here is the winner of this game will cover as well. We should know by now not to ever count Vince Young out. For intents and purposes, the Jaguars should win. The Titans won't run all over the Jags, that leaves them w/ a passing game full of unproven receivers to shoulder the load in hostile territory. The Titans scored 3 defensive TD's in the last matchup of this division series. They only had 98 yards of offense to the Jags 396. The Jaguars will want to prove that game was a fluke and show the Titans who the boss is. Remember, this is just an educated guess.
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