Hello and welcome to Beezers Palace.
It is time to get jacked up for another NFL season. Part of this season's late start for me is by design. To me, there is no reason to put so much time and energy into the preseason, I'm saving mine for later in the season. If you have been watching a lot of preseason action, take it with a grain of salt. This is my third season at the helm of the Palace. Hopefully, it will be a charm. I've had plenty of time to reflect back on last season's effort and improve on my mistakes. I know myself better as a result. Having a record to look back on is very helpful. I highly recommend keeping your own "Journal" so to speak in regards to your wagering.
There is still plenty of room to improve on last year's effort. But I have to say that I made some pretty good calls over the course of last season. The highlight of last year was my record picking Bengal's games against the spread, 13-1. Go back and read my predictions on the Bengals from last year and you will get a very good idea of how much thought I put into a game before making a decision.
Maybe I should only post my picks on the Bengals? Would one pick a week that is a lock attract more people to the Palace? In short, I feel less pressure to prove to people that I can pick winners allowing me to concentrate on other things. I'm going to clean it up around here and hold myself to a professional standard. I'm also going to go with quality over quantity when it comes to the amount of games I make predictions on. Expect to see more of my opinions on all of the games during the week with only a few making the grade for a Sunday wager.
I'm going to use a little more caution early on in this season than last. Too many new faces on too many teams. I suggest sticking to teams that haven't changed all that much since last season. that doesn't leave us much to work w/ but a couple week's worth of games should help us get an idea of who's legit and who's not.
I also think I've found what I do best in regards to handicapping and it works much better w/ the benefit of watching a couple of weeks worth of action. When it comes to which team is going to cover the spread any given NFL game. The most important thing to look at is the "psyche" of a team heading into the game. The human condition is a funny thing. Trying to get an idea of how a team feels is the best way to determine how much effort they will be good for in a particular game. For example, how many times have you seen a big favorite play down to their opponents level and just barely squeak out a win when they were favored by 10 points or more. I wish I had a nickel for every time I've seen it happen.
I have the resources and goals to make this season a rewarding one. I invite you to join me for the rise. It's the journey that makes it all worthwhile, come as you are.
Colts -6 vs Saints
The line on this game has been 5 1/2 for a few weeks until today when it moved to 6.I wrote this yesterday I was pleasantly surprised by that move when I read the sports page this morning. What are people thinking? My guess is there are some people out there thinking, well, the Colts beat the Bears and the Bears destroyed the Saints last season so the Colts can handle the Saints easily. I hope I'm wrong, it wouldn't say much for the American education system.
The Saints are a much better team than the one that fell apart in the cold sloppy conditions at Chicago last yr. I see the Saints improving on last season and they just got a little taste of winning. The Colts on the other hand are probably ready to take this season off after going to the playoffs 5 yrs in a row. They just don't know it yet. There is no way the Colts are focused as much as years past after last year's run. I refuse to think of them as Super Bowl Champions. The roughing the passer call that was called against New England in the last minute of the AFC Championship was ridiculous. They wouldn't even show it on replay. The game should have gone to OT at the worst, the call gave the Colts first and goal on the 8 or 9. It forced the Pats to let the Colts score just so they could get the ball back in hopes of a miracle. Anyway, the Colts just won't have "the eye of the tiger" this year besides just not being as good as they were.
There's a good chance Reggie Bush may rush for his NFL career high in this game. Drew Brees is a veteran QB who won't rattle on the road in a season opener. The Colts D as you know has 5 new starters. They will have some communication breakdowns that will lead to big plays for the Saints high powered offense. I really am having a hard time finding a reason not to love the Saints. So what if the Colts can score points, the Saints have just as much firepower. The Saints have the better rushing attack. The team that wins the time of possession battle should hold the upper hand in this game. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Deuce and Reggie run wild while Peyton admires their talents from the sideline.
Saints +6 make it the smallest wager that will keep you interested , they are no means locks the total of 52 is not the cheapest bet in the world and the over is not the lock it appears to be.