Beezerspalace

Week 4

Today, like any other given Sunday, has the potential to surprise.  They play to win the game.  Well, some do and some don't.  There are a few teams that have been left for dead already.  A few have the fork turning but its not over for them just yet.  The Falcons are a prime example today of a team getting points desperate for a win at home vs a Texans team that has been road favorites only once before in their storied history.  I suggest sticking w/ the dogs who think they have a chance to win the game.

Browns +4 vs Ravens

The checkdown Ravens offense can't be trusted to cover on the road vs a bitter rival.  This is game worth watching if you like seeing fights between plays.  The Browns players know it's their duty to defeat Art Model and friends.

The Browns Defense is plenty capable of making the Ravens earn their points.  The Browns passing attack can score on what appears to be a somewhat leaky Ravens secondary.  I think D. Andersen will relax at home after a up and down performance at the Blackhole last week. 

Browns +4   They have a chance to win this game.

Miami -4 vs Oakland

The 0 - 3 Dolphins are favored after showing some life on offense last week vs the Jets.  The Jets opened up a 31-13 lead before T. Green got some garbage time heroics in.  Don't go thinking they will run up and down the field on a Raiders team that has been in every game they've played.

The Raiders are much improved under new coach Kiffin and are playing inspired football.  They are on a bye nxt wk, they want to keep their coach happy w/ an effort good enough to win, which should be enough to at least cover vs the pedestrian Miami offense.

Raiders +4

New York Jets -3.5 at Buffalo

The Jets of late have a good track record of covering the number when favored.  Thomas Jones doesn't care how bad the Bills are, he just wants to get his season on track.  The Jets should be good for 24 pts at least, which should be enough to get the cover.

Jets -3.5       the Jets are my pick of the day

Atlanta +3 vs Houston

After a huge effort vs Indy last wk, dont' expect the Texans to just walk out of Atlanta w/ the victory.  The Texans will surprise me if they can match their intensity from last wk.  The 0-3 Falcons can be counted on to do their best to get their first win of the season for new coach Petrino.  If the Texans cant' run the ball on the Falcons like the Panthers did last Sunday they are in for a long day.  The Panther's ground game is stronger than Houston's.  I see no reason to think they will run away w/ this game and the chance of everyone saying how did the Falcons beat the Texans is a remote possibility.

Atlanta +3

Minnesota +1 1/2 vs Green Bay

This is a classic matchup.  The passy heavy Packers are going up against a Vikings team that has the better defense and ground game.  I prefer to take the defense and ground game in these situations but I can't see taking the Vikings in this too tough too call game.

What I can picture in this game is both teams struggling to find the end zone.

under 38 1/2

Dallas -13 vs St. Louis

The Cowboys appear to be obvious locks today.  Scary to me.   I don't like taking huge favorites that have won 3 games by huge margins in a row already.  the boys will probably cover but they will make you sweat this line a little before pulling away late.  Don't get carried away w/ the Cowboys.

Pittsburgh -6 at Arizona

This is a scary game.  A strong case can be made for the Cards today.  The Steelers are trying to get to 4-0 for the first time since '79.  They have won big 3 games in a row already and appear to be in for a close game on the road.  Can K. Warner come off the bench and light it up?  He is the Cards only chance of keeping this game close.  Matt Leinart has no chance vs the Steel Curtain.

Steelers -6

They will pull away late when the Cards defense tires after being on the field the whole game.

MNF Titans at Saints

New Orleans -4.5 vs  Tennessee

The line on this game is supposed to make people remember the Saints Monday Night game vs the Falcons last season.  Forget last season, the Titans aren't the Falcons and Vince Young is already better than M Vick ever was.  The Titans have a great offensive line, they can run on almost every team in the league. The Titans might rush for over 200 yds as a team vs what the Saints call a defense.  The Saints will look better than they have on offense up to this point but I can't see them winning big if at all.

Titans +4.5    Vince Young won't let you down

Week 3

Indy -6.5 vs Houston

I like the under in this game.  The Texans are going to try to play a ball control type of game in effort to keep the Colts offense on the sideline.  The Texans will be lucky if they score 20 pts on offense today.  The Colts will have matchup problems w/ the improved play of the Texans Defensive line.  I can't see them running up the score seeing how they are on the road vs a division opponent for the 2nd wk in a row.  They will still manage a couple of TD's and 3 FG's to win by a score of something like 23-10.

Under - 46.5

San Diego-6 at Green Bay

The straight up winnner of this game will cover as well.  The Packers are still a middle of the road NFC team as far as I am concerned.  All the talk of the Pack's improvement is hogwash.  They should have lost to Philly and there is no reason to be impressed by a win over the hapless Giants.  The Pack was 0-5 as home dogs last season.  They have a terrible track record vs AFC teams of late.

This game is a tough call due to the question marks surrounding the Bolts heading into this game.  The Bolts are locks if they can get Tomlinson untracked and he runs for over 130 yards.  That is a big if at this point.  I wish I knew what the Chargers coaches are thinking.  Will they try to establish the run and make the Pack beat their defense or will they open up the playbook in order to protect their defense on the road?  The Chargers scare me b/c they are probably a little deflated after losing badly to the Pats last Sun nite.  I'm guessing they won't really wake up until the 2nd half of the game.  Even if that happens they still might cover.  The Bolts are still capable of scoring 30 pts in one half.  I'm not wild about them but I am a firm believer that a top tier team from the AFC can regroup and give the Pack a reality check at Lambeau today.

Watch this one for the fun of it .  what you just read was pure speculation on a very scary game that could go either way

Philly -6.5 vs Detroit

Can McNabb get his rythm back?  His bum knee is the cause of this errant throws.  You can't trust a passing team like the Eagles to cover when its going this bad no matter how much it seems logical that the Eagles will bounce back and win big.  Don't go thinking the Lions are locks either.  They have already won 2 games in a row.  All the trends that I have read on these teams for this game favor the Eagles.  The one bright spot I can think of for Detroit is that their WR's might have a field day vs the man coverage that Philly loves to play.  The bottom line is you don't wager on ifs, ands, or buts. 

For fun, I am calling the Eagles and the over on this game.

Tampa Bay -3.5 vs St Louis

Finally, we have a team I like today.  Some faces have changed but the Buccs still have M. Kiffin to thank for their good defense.  The Rams won't be able to protect M. Bulger long enough to throw the deep ball.  I doubt they will run the ball w/ success either.  The Buccs offense should keep rolling on at home vs a soft Rams defense.  If the Ram's offense can't stay on the field, their defense is sure to melt in the 2nd half.  There's a good chance of that happening.

Tampa Bay -3.5    the Buccs are my pick of the day

New England -16.5 vs Buffalo

The Pats will be pressed to get "up" for this game.  It will be a very work like performance of 27-10 or something close to it.  I see them running the ball a lot.  The Bills won't score a pt until the 4th Q but 2 garbage TD's may be enough to cover the 27-31 methodical pts the Pats are good for.

I like the under in a boring game for everyone except Patriots fans.

Under 41

Pittsburgh -9.5 vs San Fran

The Steelers are at home for the 2nd game in a row.  The Niners are coming off a big effort at St Louis last week.  This is a huge advantage for the Steelers.  I hate laying 9.5pts but I don't see the Niners being ready to go into Pitt and starting buzzing up and down the field.  The Steelers are one of my top 3 teams in the AFC.  The Niners are up and comers that aren't ready to challenge the Steeler Defense.

Steelers -9.5

Ravens -7.5 vs Cardinals

Another NFC/NFC match up where I like the home team.  The Ravens should have success running the ball and the Cards won't score 14 pts at Baltimore.  Matt Leinart is not very mobile and the Cards offensive line gets their first real test.

Ravens they win big and cover the over of 35 by themselves.  I like the over more than the Ravens at -7.5 just in case the Cards surprise me and somehow keep it close

over 35.5.

Denver -3.5 vs Jacksonville

The logical thing to think here is the Jags are too inept on offense to keep pace w/ the Broncos.  The Jags have been fading of late.  Their run defense is suddenly suspect.   All signs point to the Broncos winning handily.  The drawback on Denver has been their redzone offense.  Who cares about yardage, we need pts and the Broncos are still lacking in that dept. It would suck to watch the Broncos sit on a lead and win the game by 3 pts even though the score won't show they had the game in total control.  They play at Indy next wk and will keep their offense as vanilla as possible so they can save some surprises for next week.

No bet - the Broncs have been money burners as home favs and the Jags aren't an option.

Seattle -3.5 vs Cincinnati

I see the Seahawks winning by 10 pts.  The difference in this game will be the Seahawks ability to control the clock and sustain drives w/ their rushing attack.  The Bengals fall apart when they are trying to make a comeback and it looks like the Seahawks will have a lead at some point.  The Bengals Offensive line might struggle w/ pass protection.  They might have to stick w/ quick timing patterns to combat the situation.  What I'm trying to say is the Bengals may not have the quick strike ability they did last week.  If the Seahawks can take away the deep ball and make the Bengals sustain long drives, the Bengals are in trouble.  That's a big if.  Regardless, it is hard not to imagine one of these teams scoring 30 something pts by themselves.  The only way this game doesn't go over is if the Bengals completely fall apart and score less than 17 pts.  That's a big if too.

Seahawks -3.5

over 49

Oakland -3 vs Cleveland

Are we supposed to be impressed by the Raiders big effort at Denver last week?   Da Raiders new coach is good and has them looking respectable but they are still a team trying to snap an 11 game losing streak.  Sure, the Browns gave up 46 pts last week you can say.  Last time I checked, Josh McCown wasn't being compared to C. Palmer and the Raiders don't have anyone close to Chad Johnson at WR.  The Browns Defense can keep it close enough to cover at the very least.  The Browns were incredibley fluid on offense last wk and I can't see them completely drying up after last week's performance. 

My pick on this game comes down to the team's mental state heading into this game.  The Raiders put a huge effort in last week's game only to get their heart's ripped out at the end.  They were in shock until Tuesday at least.  They won't be able to bounce back in just one week.  They are losers, the Browns are brimming w/ confidence and swagger after a big win and the taste of winning in Cleveland isn't going to get old just yet.

Browns + 3

Kansas City -3 vs Minnesota

Kelly Volcum is making the start for the Vikings today, he is a much better option than option QB Tavaris Jackson.  He should be able to manage the game enough to keep the Vikings in the game.

Vikings +3

week 2

it looks like the NFL is saving its surprises for later,maybe as soon as this Sunday. Week one was surprisingly predictable in hindsight as the favorites dominated making most preseason prognisticators look smart for a change.  Could week two be just as predictable? Not a chance, don't make the mistake of thinking any team will play their best or worst on a consistent basis. There is one team a year that consistently plays well week in and week out and they usually win the Superbowl as well. Its way too early to determine just which team will be that late season moneymaker or call in the coroner on teams that took a beatin this past week.  All we are trying to do is figure out what part of the "what goes up must come down" part of the rollercoaster ride known as an NFL season teams are on.

Due to the fact that I'm the worlds slowest typer and my computer  keeps deleting every other  paragraph  I have  written  I  have scrapped this weeks long version. My thumbs keep dragging the mousepad on my new laptop and as the result s have been dissastruos.

Bengals vs Browns    the Bengals scare me because they look like an obvious call . The over looks like a good play no matter which way this game goes. If the Bengals blow out the Browns and score 35 plus pts like everyone thinks they will we only need one cheap TD from the Browns for an over. If the Browns make this a game like I think they will the over is a lock.

Over 41.5     last season my record vs the spread on Bengals game was 13-1 on the games I chose to make a call. I know my hometown Bengals very well. Believe me when I tell you the Bengals are not the obvious locks they appear to be.

I also like the     Bears -12 , Niners +3 ,   sorry about whaI appears to be a lack of effort. Actually I have spent hours writing my thoughts for this week"s games down on paper but my frustrations with this comptuer have got the best of me and I I'm tired of being let down by asking people for help. By seasons end I should be a descent typist and I'm purchasing a keyboard  tomorrow.

early projections on week 2

  Steelers -10 vs Buffalo   the Bills may not be able to recover in time from a last second loss to the Broncos to give the Steelers a game.  The hangover from these types of losses usually doesn't go away w/ a little treatment for the typical Monday bumps and bruises.  think Arizona Cardinals vs the Bears last season, the Cards wre soundly defeated by Da Raiders of all teams after a deflating loss on Monday night football the week before. 

  The Steelers will have plenty of swagger for this game seeing how its their  home opener. The players surely want their new coach to look good in front of the hometown fans.  The Broncos piled up the yards vs the Bills but couldn't finish drives.  The Steelers won't have that problem at home.

Jaguars -10 vs Falcons     this is already a must win  scenario for the Jags, they do not want to start the season losing two in a row at home. After scoring only ten points last week, I expect them to be a little more aggressive on offense in order to get this teams confidence going.  The Jags D is suddenly not very good. They may have to give up their habit of playing stall ball.  THE Falcons are on the road again at a another tough venue, enough said

Bengals-6.5 at Browns    the Browns are probably the angriest team in the league.They gave the game away to the Steelers,they didn't get their hearts ripped out like the Bills.The Browns D put up a valiant effort only to see it go to waste courtesy of Charlie FRYED . How long will it take the Browns D to give up in this game? That depends on the qb. Could a full week of practice as the unquestioned starter inspire Derek Anderson to greatness? He may respond very well in a situation where he know's the hook isn't one play away. We really don't know how good the Bengals D is after watching the Ravens fumble the game away last Monday. As a Bengals fan ,I'm worried about the gaping holes I saw Mcgahee running through. C Frye made some forced throws all by himself when he had good protection, the Browns could easily regroup on offense and score 20 plus pts vs a soft Bengals D provided they take care of the ball and play within themselves. 20 is the magic # for the Brownies, they have an excellent chance to cover if they can muster up 20 or more pts.

Ravens -10 vs Jets   coming off a  loss is a good spot to catch the Ravens in bounce back mode vs a Jets team they will overwhelm physically.  The Jets o-line problems are serious and the Ravens will have no problem taking advantage of the Jets shortcomings. The Jets are bumming because they may know just how bad they really are.

Broncos -10 vs Raiders    this is a much bigger game for the Raiders than the Broncos. Shanahan quit running up the score on the hated Raiders awhile ago. The Broncos will score just enough points to win the game, it will take a defensive TD or two for them to cover this 10 pt line.

Lions -3 vs Vikings   the Lions have more confidence than the young Vikings at this point in the season. T. Jackson is making his first career start at a place that has given B Farve trouble over the years. The Vikings aren't going to score 3 def tds two weeks in a row. The Lions offense looked sharp at Oakland and they may be just getting warmed up.

Pats -3.5 vs Chargers   If you know someone who likes the Pats this week, its time for an intervention.  They have to be distracted amidst the controversy. The Chargers are out for blood after last seasons end and will take it upon themselves to beat up the cheaters.

Colts -7 vs Titans   don't get greedy with the Colts, the Titans know the Colts much better than the Saints who were obviously overwhelmed by the pageantry of playing the champs at their house on national tv. The Titans ran all over the Colts last season, this game will go a long way in determining just how good the Colts D really is.  The Colts should win but by how many is a tough call. This could easily be a close game. 

These are not my final picks for Sunday , I'll have them narrowed down by Sunday at 11 am at the latest.

Monday Night Opener

Bengals -3 vs Ravens

The Bengals have more question marks heading into this game than the Ravens.  Suspensions and injuries are getting to them and thier offensive line won't be up to par unless the Bengals are playing possum.  The Bengals won the 2nd matchup of this division series last season because the Ravens had already won the division.  A good friend of mine saw a very high profile player on the Ravens leaving a liquor store at 2am w/ 2 fifth's of vodka and a box of rubbers the night before the game.  The game was also on a Thurs night, the Ravens had just played the Steelers at Pittsburgh the Sunday before.  The Ravens are not here to party this time around. 

Steve McNair may be playing his last season and I expect it to be a good one.  He has had the entire offseason to work on his knowledge of their system.  He should be able to call more audibles and the like.  The Ravens are going to score 24 points tonight at least which should be good for a cover.

Ravens +3

Week #1 2007

I'm still smarting from my call on Thursday night's game.  I could give you plenty of reasons why my call on the game was so far off but they would be excuses.  Who wants to hear them.  Looking back on my record from last season tells me the smart thing to do this week is to sit back, watch the games and learn.

In Week 2 of last season, I was 5-0 with all of my 2 star games.  I have scrapped my star rating system since but you should know that I only recommended wagers for games w/ 2 or more stars.  A 1 star rating meant that the pick was made on the game if I was forced to call it.

Back to today.

Steelers -4.5  vs Browns

I read a very interesting note only a stats and history buff could love.  No coach in Steelers history has ever won his very first game.  Weird stats like these have a tendency to hold up.  The Steelers should win this game.  The Browns would shock the world w/ a win, I think they will come up just short.  This is going to be a fight to the death kind of game.  Still, there are too many question marks on both teams for a wager.  I'm just trying to tell everyone to use a little patience and stay away from a potential sucker bet on the Steelers.

Last yr in Week 1 the Dogs covered in 10 out of 16 games.  Out of the 6 favorites who covered, 4 of those teams were top notch clubs that ended up having good season.  Indy, Chicago, San Diego and Philly.  If you're going to take a favorite today, try to stick w/ the very best teams.

There are quite a few bad teams from last season favored today.  Some of these teams are going to be improved but figuring that out is guess work at this point.  Anyway, the Skins, Texans, Vikings, Raiders all look like bad bets to me.  They are all bet at your own risk games.  I'm not going to put my stamp of approval on them because I want to have an extremely impressive record vs the spread on my picks at season's end.

Broncos -3.5 at Bills

On the road as favorites early in the season is not the place to wager on the Broncos.  Its very hard not to think Broncos D vs JP Losman, what am I waiting for, T Henry is dying to go off vs the team that shipped him for malcontent W. McGahee.  I don't have enough confidence in Jay Cutler to say w/ confidence that the Broncos are good for a cover here.  M. Shanahan will probably do his best to protect his young QB's confidence for the season.  I expect the Bronocos to call a conservative game and make the Bills beat their defense.  I don't see the Bills having a good day on offense.  Trouble is, this could be a game that is not near as close as the score indicates.

Jaguars -7 vs Titans

All you need to know here is the winner of this game will cover as well.  We should know by now not to ever count Vince Young out.  For intents and purposes, the Jaguars should win.  The Titans won't run all over the Jags, that leaves them w/ a passing game full of unproven receivers to shoulder the load in hostile territory.  The Titans scored 3 defensive TD's in the last matchup of this division series.  They only had 98 yards of offense to the Jags 396.  The Jaguars will want to prove that game was a fluke and show the Titans who the boss is.  Remember, this is just an educated guess.

Thursday Sept 6th kickoff

Hello and welcome to Beezers Palace. 

It is time to get jacked up for another NFL season.  Part of this season's late start for me is by design.  To me, there is no reason to put so much time and energy into the preseason,  I'm saving mine for later in the season.  If you have been watching a lot of preseason action, take it with a grain of salt.  This is my third season at the helm of the Palace.  Hopefully, it will be a charm.  I've had plenty of time to reflect back on last season's effort and improve on my mistakes.  I know myself better as a result.  Having a record to look back on is very helpful.  I highly recommend keeping your own "Journal" so to speak in regards to your wagering.

There is still plenty of room to improve on last year's effort.  But I have to say that I made some pretty good calls over the course of last season.  The highlight of last year was my record picking Bengal's games against the spread, 13-1.  Go back and read my predictions on the Bengals from last year and you will get a very good idea of how much thought I put into a game before making a decision. 

Maybe I should only post my picks on the Bengals?  Would one pick a week that is a lock attract more people to the Palace?  In short, I feel less pressure to prove to people that I can pick winners allowing me to concentrate on other things.  I'm going to clean it up around here and hold myself to a professional standard.  I'm also going to go with quality over quantity when it comes to the amount of games I make predictions on.  Expect to see more of my opinions on all of the games during the week with only a few making the grade for a Sunday wager.

I'm going to use a little more caution early on in this season than last.  Too many new faces on too many teams.  I suggest sticking to teams that haven't changed all that much since last season.  that doesn't leave us much to work w/ but a couple week's worth of games should help us get an idea of who's legit and who's not.

I also think I've found what I do best in regards to handicapping and it works much better w/ the benefit of watching a couple of weeks worth of action.  When it comes to which team is going to cover the spread any given NFL game.  The most important thing to look at is the "psyche" of a team heading into the game.  The human condition is a funny thing.  Trying to get an idea of how a team feels is the best way to determine how much effort they will be good for in a particular game.  For example, how many times have you seen a big favorite play down to their opponents level and just barely squeak out a win when they were favored by 10 points or more.  I wish I had a nickel for every time I've seen it happen.

I have the resources and goals to make this season a rewarding one.  I invite you to join me for the rise.  It's the journey that makes it all worthwhile, come as you are.

Colts -6 vs Saints

The line on this game has been 5 1/2 for a few weeks until today when it moved to 6.I wrote this yesterday  I was pleasantly surprised by that move when I read the sports page this morning.  What are people thinking?  My guess is there are some people out there thinking, well, the Colts beat the Bears and the Bears destroyed the Saints last season so the Colts can handle the Saints easily.  I hope I'm wrong, it wouldn't say much for the American education system.

The Saints are a much better team than the one that fell apart in the cold sloppy conditions at Chicago last yr.  I see the Saints improving on last season and they just got a little taste of winning.  The Colts on the other hand are probably ready to take this season off after going to the playoffs 5 yrs in a row.  They just don't know it yet.  There is no way the Colts are focused as much as years past after last year's run.  I refuse to think of them as Super Bowl Champions.  The roughing the passer call that was called against New England in the last minute of the AFC Championship was ridiculous.  They wouldn't even show it on replay.  The game should have gone to OT at the worst, the call gave the Colts first and goal on the 8 or 9.  It forced the Pats to let the Colts score just so they could get the ball back in hopes of a miracle.  Anyway, the Colts just won't have "the eye of the tiger" this year besides just not being as good as they were. 

There's a good chance Reggie Bush may rush for his NFL career high in this game.  Drew Brees is a veteran QB who won't rattle on the road in a season opener.  The Colts D as you know has 5 new starters.  They will have some communication breakdowns that will lead to big plays for the Saints high powered offense.  I really am having a hard time finding a reason not to love the Saints.  So what if the Colts can score points, the Saints have just as much firepower.  The Saints have the better rushing attack.  The team that wins the time of possession battle should hold the upper hand in this game.  It wouldn't surprise me to see the Deuce and Reggie run wild while Peyton  admires their talents from the sideline.   

Saints +6      make it the smallest wager that will keep you interested , they are no means locks    the total of 52 is not the cheapest bet in the world and the over is not the lock it appears to be.