Beezerspalace

AFC NORTH SHOWDOWN

Bengals -3 vs Ravens    don't fall into the trap of thinking the Bengals are the better team because they would have won the first matchup between these teams IF they didn't spot the Ravens 14 points before the game really got going a few weeks ago.  That's what defensive teams do, they get a lead, sit on it and make you beat their defense. The only stat I care to remember from the first game is that the Ravens held the ball for almost forty minutes. That tells us they are plenty capable of moving the chains vs the Bengals tonight.  The Ravens D should be able to slow down the Bengals at the least and could possibly make Palmer look bad.

Ravens +3     defense wins championships and this game will determine the champions of the AFC NORTH this year. 

WEEK 12 NFL PICKS

Bengals -3 at Browns   the Browns are letdown material if there is such a thing as far as good underdogs go. they put a lot of emphasis in last week's revenge game vs the Steelers. now the Bengals come to town in a must win game for them.

Bengals-3       I have to agree w/ the masses, the winner of the game between these two teams is almost a synch to cover the number

Giants -3 at  Titans        the Giants struggles of late make them a bad road favorite.  it will be the defense that lets them down this time.

Titans+3        very good record vs the NFC so far       Over   the trends say this game has a very good chance of going over

Falcons -3 vs Saints      the beat up Falcons aren't going to run away from anybody. the Saints will keep this close at the least.

Saints+3   

Rams -4.5  vs  49ers    why is a team that has lost 5 games in a row favored by more than a field goal.  the oddsmakers were really reaching for shit here trying to confuse a few folks into thinking the Rams still have an advantage over the Niners.  I'll save you from anymore of my BS and just say that there are a lot of trends in the 49ers favor.

Niners + 4.5

The four games listed above are my best suggestions for today. The rest of todays picks are mostly speculation, I'm going to have to step out on a limb on the rest of today's games.

Ravens -3 vs Steelers   take the points in what should be a hard fought physical division game. I think the Steelers will respond to the role of spoiler/underdog fairly well. There will be no love lost between these teams today.

Steelers +3

Colts -9 vs Eagles     the trends heavily favor the Eagles, its hard to believe they will keep this game close but thats why they play the game. 

Eagles +9       

Vikings -6.5 vs Cardinals      this should be a get well game for the Vikings. Have fun, the idea of getting on a team that is a 6.5 point favorite that has lost 4 in a row is a bad idea.

Vikings -6.5      the Cardinals won't score more than 14 points on offense, the Vikings should cover unless the Cards create points off turnovers and/or  special teams.

Jaguars -3 at  Bills     the Jags have won two in a row already, I think this  up and down team will be happy with an ugly win on the road. 

Bills +3

Jets -5  vs Texans   this game is a closer matchup than the line suggests, the Texans are plenty capable of keeping this game close.

Texans +5

Chargers -13.5 vs Raiders     the Chargers big win at Denver last week will make it difficult to get up for today's game.  the Raiders D is playing very well, they will make the Bolts earn their points. the Chargers know the Raiders aren't going to start lighting up the scoreboard anytime soon.  That is why I think we'll a very conservative gameplan from the Chargers.

Raiders +13.5     under 43    I see a slow movin, clock eating yawner of a game in the works

TURKEY DAY

Today might not be such a bad day to carve up your bookie as well as a turkey.  Don't get carried away and bet a lot of money on a holiday.  You'll give away all your gambling tendencies in front of your relatives if you start cussin' in front of the tv.  Nothing like make it a couple hundred extra bucks will soothe your nerves from a fun filled day w/ the inlaws.

Miami -3 at Detroit

Joey Harrington returns to the scene of the crime.  The verdict on him is still out but a good showing from the Dolphins today would help prove his cause that he wasn't the problem.  Detroit's defense is so bad there are some college teams that could run the ball on them pretty well.  Last week, the Dolphins beat a team w/ the best run defense in the league.  This week, they have the luxury of getting Ronnie Brown involved.  All the trends favor the Dolphins.

Dolphins -3

Dallas -11 vs Tampa Bay

This will be the 3rd game in 11 days for the Buccs.  That is why this line is so huge.  The idea of taking the Cowboys as 11 point favorites on a short week, is not a good one, but the Cowboys are the only pick here. 

Dallas -11     Not the best bet of the day.

Chiefs -1.5 vs Broncos

The home team has dominated this series for years.  Every year the Chiefs win at KC and the Broncos win at Denver.  The Broncos are obviously the better team but won't be tonite.

Chiefs -1.5

Early projections for Week 11

Browns +3.5 vs Steelers

The trends heavily favor the Steelers.  The magic number for the Browns is 20.  If you think the Browns will score more than 20 points,  TAKE'M

Steelers-3.5   

Saints -3.5 vs Bengals

I have correctly picked the winner vs the spread on every Bengals game this year.  This is the first game that has me confused.  When that is the case 9 times out of 10 the dog covers.  Take the points in this game.  Do not take the over.  it looks like such an easy call.  The total is risky and could very well come in a point or 2 short.

Bengals+3.5

Packers +5.5 vs Patroits

The Pats are not the same w/o Rodney Harrison,.  The offense still isn't consistnet.  The Pats are a terrible favorite.  Forget they are the Pats for a second and think about them as just a team that has lost 2 in a row that is a road favorite of almost a TD vs a Packer squad that can score points.  Favre will feel rejuvenated thinking about this Super Bowl win vs N. England 10 years ago.

Packers+5

Jets+6.5 vs Bears

Pennington won't get away w/ those floating screen passes vs the Bears.  The Jets will struggle to score.  If all goes as predicted by most the Bears should win by a fair margin.

That is a pretty big if considering the Jets are sandwiched btw last week's game vs the Giants and a trip to New England next week. The Jets got a shot in the arm last week and a stronger effort from them might be enough to somehow cover in the game. 

The Bears are the pick unless you think the Jets will win the game straight up.  Whoever wins this game will cover.

Bears-6.5

Dolphins-3.5 vs Vikings

The water in Miami looks pretty warm.  The Dolphins are catching the Vikings in a bad spot.  Minnesota was at San Fran last week and now has to fly into what should be a fairly hot and humid Miami.  Thats  a lot of traveling.  I doubt they will play up to their best.  Meanwhile, the Dolphins have been comfortable at home eating home cooked meals and while riding the momentum of a 2 game winning streak.

Dolphins-3.5

Cowboys+1.5 vs Colts

The Cowboys aren't ready for P. Manning and Co.  I see the Colts opening up the playbook and scoring 35 plus points.  It's questionable to think the boys can match them everytime w/ a TD.  P. Manning vs a QB w/ less 5 career starts.  The Cowboys are one of the most penalized teams in the league.  Sooner or later, a mental mistake will cost them.

Colts -1.5

Chiefs-9.5 vs Raiders

When the Chiefs are at home, if you can pick the winner of the game outright you have the moneymaker as well.

Chiefs -9.5

Texans-2 vs Bills

Taking the Texans as favs is not the most entertaining idea.  They look like the pick.  The return of starting CB D Faggins has sparked the defense.  J Losman wil probably throw at least 1 int in this game.  An interesting stat on the Bills from last week is they only had 2 players w/ a reception.  The A train cannot catch very well.  This allows teams to cover the other guys more now that they don't have to worry about McGahee. the Bills will struggle in the red zone at the very least.  Take the home team in a battle of alsorans.

Texans-2            

Broncos -2.5 vs Chargers

I've seen easier games.  I like the home team in what appears to be a decent game.  The Broncos have the edge in energy after a cushy win vs Oakland while the Chargers were in a cross country shootout.  Now they travel to a place that has not been kind to them.    The Broncos should be able to score on the Chargers shaky secondary.  The Broncos D can handle a tired San Diego team w/ a QB making his first start at Denver.  The Chiefs beat the Bolts at home and so will the Broncos

Broncos-2.5

Cardinals -2 vs Lions

This game is not worth anyone's time or money.  Inconsistent teams are bad bets waiting to turn into bad beats.  Save yourself from a story

Eagles -13 vs Titans

The Eagles may be looking ahead to the Colts next week.  I like the points in this game.  The Eagles may have trouble in the red zone, a bunch of field goals won't cover a 13 point line.  The Eagles record at home vs the AFC against the spread is terrible. 

Titans +13

49ers+3 vs Seahawks

The Seawhawks minus Hasselback are in for a street fight vs their division rival 49ers at San Fran Sunday.  There are a lost of stats and trends that favor the Niners.

Niners+3

Ravens-4 vs Falcons  the Ravens haven't been good as favs so far, the Falcons don't look like a solid pick either.  There will be a little more offense in this game than expected. TAKE THE OVER  and the home team.

Ravens-4       over 41

MondayNightNightmares

Panthers_10 vs Buccs    think of all the people who took a bath yesterday amongst all the upsets. now they have to take a stab at tonights very unappealing game.   In case your interested the Panthers are the pick tonight.  not a very good one at -10 .  the Panthers always play prevent not to win defense if they get a big lead, the best chance they have for covering is to pull away late so some unbelievable 2nd half BS doesn't happen. the Panthers O sucks when it comes to covering big lines.  I think it will have to be one of those games where everything goes the Panthers way for them to cover.    The Buccs suck so bad the prospect of taking them is out of the question.

Panthers-10    the trends are in there favor

more picks for week 10

Bills/Colts under 44.5  ,   Jets/Pats under38 , Steelers/Saints over 46 , Jags/Texans under 37.5 , Falcons/Browns under 41.5, Eagles/Skins under 42      

There aren't alot of games I like today,  the over under picks posted have some very favorable trends going for them.

Seahawks-3 vs Rams      the Rams will keep this close vs a very familiar struggling division opponent.

Rams +3

As far as the rest of the games go today, you could probably take every dog and come out ahead. the  Bears / Giants game is for gamblers only, a true coin flip

Week 10

Bengals vs Chargers+1

After losing 2 in a row, the Bengals will put up a better fight than expected but the final score will end up in the Chargers favor.

Chargers +1

Lions-6 vs 49ers

The Lions keep it going today vs the Niners.  The Niners are 2 TD's worse on the road.  I see a fairly high scoring game the lions win by double digits.  Something like 38-24.

Lions -6   Over 46

Ravens -7vs Titans

This is a great matchup for the Ravens.  The Titans could get shut out.  The Titans will be forced to throw and we all know how that will go vs a defense like Baltimore's.  This is a serious grudge match where the favorite clearly has the dog overmatched.  Ray Ray seems like he's more upset about McNair's treatment from the Titans than McNair.  Even if they struggle to score 17 points, that should be enought to covver.

Ravens -7

Vikings -5.5 vs Packers

The Vikings don't look like solid favorites after losing 2 in a row.  The Pack should be good for a backdoor cover at the worst.

Packers +5.5

Broncos -9 vs Raiders

  The Broncos are letdown material.  After playing the Colts and Steelers, the Raiders are sandwiched between a big game vs San Diego next week.  I like the Raiders for the simple fact that they will play much harder than the Broncos.  This is the biggest game left on the schedule for Da Raiders

Raiders +9

week 9 update

        some final thoughts before kickoff

Bills-3 vs Packers     for all intents and purposes, the Packers appear good enought to cover this line.  However, I have read enough stats and trends on both teams that heavily favor the Bills.  Have you ever made an intelligent wager only to say IF?  This could be one of these types of games for you if you make the seemingly right choice of taking the Pack here. 

Bills -3    this is hard to print        ( PUNT)

Rams -2 vs Chiefs        the magic number for the Chiefs is 28.  The Rams are 7-49-1 vs the number at home when they give up 28 or more points.  the Chiefs should be good for 30

The over looks like such an easy call, it scares me

todays games are not easy, I suggest using caution

Week 9

Ravens -3  vs Bengals

Brother, can you spare a dime?  I mean can you lend me a grand to wager on the Ravens this Sunday?  Christmas is just around the corner, Ray Lewis makes for a great Santa, dont' you think?

In truth, the Bengals O line issues and their suspect run defense are going to resurface at Baltimore.  Palmer won't have time to throw the deep ball that can hurt the man coverage the Ravens love to play.  The Ravens are a veteran team on a mission b/c they know this could be their last shot at the big one.  At home in a game w/ the division title at stake will have them in the right frame of mind.  Knowing the Bengals have quick strike ability makes me think the Ravens will not hesitate to run up the score.  Once the Bengals are down two scores they will abandon the run like always which will play right into the Ravens hands.  The Ravens will be harder to defend w/ Billick calling the plays.  The Bengals continue to amaze me w/ their immaturity.  T.J. #84, one of the more level headed Bengals was quoted, "We know, we're better than teams we've lost to."  When will these guys shut up?  Go to work and play disciplined ball on Sunday. not anytime soon

Ravens -3***

Steelers -2.5 vs Broncos

A scary game to wager on, but it could be one of the more predictable games on the plate Sunday.  I like the Steelers the more I think about this game.  Why?  After watching the replay of Indy/Denver, it seems to me that the Broncos were trying to score as fast as they could.  They don't have the skills on offense to methodically play keep away.  M. Bell is not going to run for 50 yards going off guard vs Pittsburgh.  Indy's defense is so bad even the Broncos put up 31 points against them.  the way they did it is what I find interesting.  It seemed to me they didn't have a lot of options.  If they had more confidence in Plummer they would have tried to kill the clock at the end of the game before scoring.  The Team's confidence in Jake and his own self confidence should be the storyline of this game.  This is his chance at redemption vs the team he choked against badly.  I think we'll see a repeat perforemace of last year's debauchery.  Who knows what was said to him in the offseason, but this guy is a "head case".  The Broncos should struggle to move the ball vs a Steeler team in desperation mode.  Look at the Steelers schedule and you will see that their schedule lightens up after Denver. 

This team has enough heart to think they're not finished yet.  They have to be thinking it's possible to make a run like last season.  Getting past Denver is the first step.  That's why I think we'll see an extra super human effort out of the Steelers on Sunday.  Don't worry about Denver's Defense.  The Colts proved the Broncos aren't too much different than last year.  All the hype is due to the fact the Broncos didn't play against team playing well offensively before the Colts this season.  The Steelers pounded Denver last year at Denver, so they know they can do the same at home. 

Steelers-2.5*

Patriots-3 vs Colts

  The Pats should win, they are starting to look like the Pats of 2004.  The difference in this game is T. Brady's ability to execute a sure fire game plan the coaches have constructed.  The Pats should have more gas in the tank than the Colts.  Playing a long drawn out game at Denver had to take a lot out of the Colts.  The Pats are on a short week themselves but they don't have to get back on a plane just to go into enemy territory again.  The mental energy these kinds of things take out of a team are often overlooked.  It would be a shock to me if the Colts play up to their best on offense.  Factor in their weak defense and the Pats look pretty good to win the game.  The kicker is a stat I have on the Colts.  They have not covered once the last 38 times when they lose.

Patroits -3**

Bears -13.5 vs Dolphins

I'm sure a few members of the 1972 Dolphins have reminded the players their duty this weekend.  Too bad the Fish are dooty, there is no way they can win but an extraordinary effort might get the cover.  The Dolphins have one edge this week and its all psychological.  With the Giants looming ahead the Bears are letdown material.  The oddsmakers have this game right on the number.  The Fish are plenty capable of making the Bears scrape for every point they score.  The Fish are a huge dissapointment to their fans.  All the sins committed this year will be forgotten if they were to blemish the Bears record.  That won't happen but this notion scares me away from the Bears.  there is no way the Bears can match the effort the Fish are good for this Sunday.  If the windy city holds true to its name, this could be a very weird game.  I recommend finding another game.  The Bears offense has faced no real defenses to speak of.  The Fish are getting long in the tooth on defense but this proud unit will play strong this Sunday.

Dolphins+13.5*   for entertainment only,

Giants -13 vs Houston

I'm going to make a few reaches here.  Plexiglass could probably play if this was a big game.  The Giants may be just resting him thinking they can win without him vs. Houston.  This says a lot about the attitude they have going into this game.  Taking a team that is a 2 TD favorite in practice mode is not a good idea.  With the Bears looming ahead no matter what they say, the GMEN are looking ahead to next week. The Texans are plenty capable of throwing up 20 garbage points or so.  I hate to say it, but I like the Texans.

Texans+ 13*

Rams -3 vs Chiefs

This is not an easy call.  The Rams are tough at home vs the AFC while the Chiefs aren't the best road team in the world.  My call on this game is based on my judgement of each team's strength of schedule.  It is not my favorite method to use by any stretch but there is not much to go on here.  The Chief's ability to run the ball should negate the noisy dome to some degree.  Take the points in what should be a close game.

Chiefs+3*

Jaguars -9 vs Titans

This could be a low scoring chess match.  The Jaguars probably won't throw much until or unless the Titans start scoring.  The Jaguars have never been a team known to cover big lines, they are happy to play in a defensive struggle.  Call me crazy, but I think the Titans have run the ball as good as anybody over the last few weeks.  They are capable of moving the chains vs the Jags.  The points look pretty good in a division rivalry game.

Titans+9*

Bills -3 vs Packers

  pass

Buccs +1 vs Saints

This looks like the beinning of a bad stretch for the Buccs.

NFL teams can't live on defense alone.  The rookie QB will continue to struggle.  He looked pretty good vs the Saints a month ago.  His seemingly decent play can be attributed to the fact that he might have been stupid enough not to know what he was getting into.  The Saints at least now have 4 games worth of film to study him.  After getting a wake up call vs the Ravens, look for the Saints to be focused enough to pull out a hard fought division game even if they have to kick five field goals in the process.  Pick the winnner and you got a cover.   

Saints-1**

49ers +5 vs Vikings

Before the season started the Niners were 17-4 vs opponents coming off a MNF game.  I think they have lost a game in this scenario to Philly earlier this year.  It has me thinking it won't happen twice in a row.  The Vikings will not be up to par for this game besides being offensively challenged already. The Niners will put up one of their more pesky performances of the season after last week's embarrasing loss. The west coast trip for the Vikings is hard enough without a Monday night hangover.

49'ers +5*

Lions +5 vs Falcons

The over looks better than either team here.  Detroits defense has looked so bad, the Falcons look like an easy call.  I wouldn't be so sure.  Don't take either team and stick w/ the over.

Falcons-5    not a point more,  can Vick keep it up,  he is due to play bad

Chargers -12.5 vs Browns

Laying the points doesn't seem so bad here.  The Brownies will struggle to move the ball.  The Chargers rushing attack is very reliable.  The Bolts shold score their usual 30 plus points.  The Browns are good for 17 points max.  It won't be an easychair game but the Chargers should cover.

Chargers-12.5*

Redskins+3 vs Cowboys        the Skins look down enough to be homedogs to the hated Cowboys. The boys make for a scary bet as road favorites in this storied rivalry. The Skins are supposedly healthy on defense for a change. when I picture Brunell getting sacked repeatedly I can't picture them winning. there is a good chance this will be a field goal kicking contest. I suggest you punt!

Cowboys-3

my favorite teams are Ravens-3   Patriots-3   Titans +9   the  Ravens are very close to being locks

my four favorite teams this week are the  Ravens-3 Patriots-3  Titans+9 and I'll get back to you in the morning on the 4th