Much like a team coming off a big win, this week is going to be difficult for me to repeat last week's performance. My overall record was only 8 - 5 - 1 against the spread, but if you read my predictions carefully, you'll notice that I recommended not wagering on the games I was wrong about to begin with.
Hey, there's a reason to check out my picks. Just go against me on the games I recommend not betting on at all. In case you are too lazy to go back and check yourself, the teams that I incorrectly picked in Week #4 were the Vikings +1, Lions +5.5, Chargers -3.5, Colts -9, and the Packers +10.5. Four of these games were coin flips, while my call the Packers was stupid to say the least. I just can't get the memory of last year's Panthers Packers game out of my head. The Panthers were -7.5 favs in a game you knew there was no way they could lose to Green Bay. I can't remember exactly how many points the Panthers were up, but it was around 24. The game was out of hand when ole #4 decided to mount one of his trademark comebacks. Trouble is, that it was so obvious the Pack had no chance to win the game I was embarrassed for ole #4 himself. He looked like a redshirt freshman QB getting his first snaps at Michigan in a blowout late in a game vs Milkweed state. I don't need to tell you that the Pack covered in one of the cheapest displays of football I have ever seen. I still get pissed remembering that one.
This year's Packers are different. Ole #4 looks like he is out on an island. A couple more losses and the season is over for them. They should be easy prey after that. They suck. I feel better now. As you can see, I always pick my reasoning apart when I'm wrong. You can't get any better if you don't .
My only two star game of the week was the Patroits who surprised a lot of people out there except for those lucky souls out there taking a stroll through "Beezerspalace". Amongst the other seven games that I correctly called were a few that I should have rated a little higher - New Orleans, KC, Atlanta, Dallas and Washington were not the hardest games in the world to call. I'll work on getting the easy games correctly sorted out. The other 2 teams correctly chosen, Houston and Da Raiders were not worthy risking your money on. When you see me make a crazy call like that, I'm trying to warn you from taking the other team.
Week #5
Buffalo +10 at Chicago
Grossman vs Losman
This may seem like a stretch, but the Bills have the edge at WR. Lee Evans is underrated. The Bills will try to go "up top" to Evans a few times just trying to shake a few things loose, i.e. team morale, game momentum, and the Bears defensive player's minds. The Bills know that it will take an extraordinary effort to somehow get the W. It is a fair assumption that the Bills offense should have more problems with Chicago's defense than vise versa. I figure the Bills are good for 14 points. Determining who will cover all comes down to the Bills defense and special teams. The Bears were firing on all cylinders vs Seattle. I would be surprised if their offense just steps right in where they left off from the game vs the Seahawks. The Bills have a little more hope and enthusiasm going for them than the Seahawks, which should make for a better game. I'm trying to say that it's possible the Seahawks thought they were beat before they got off the plane. Poor little us, we've lost our shepard Sean Alexander. Back to the point, are the Bills capable of holding the Bears to under 24 points? Will Chicago try to cover Evans w/ 1 on 1 man coverage? When it comes down to it - this game seems right on the number. Its early, but I'm having conflicting ideas about this one. Am I right thinking Vegas has the turnovers factored into the line of -10 ? J.P. Losman has been known to turn the ball over at times. The Bears are turnover bandits. Man, I'm having a hard time finding a reason to like the Bills except for one, when people start thinking about parting w/ their hard earned money before making a wager, they look for a game that makes them feel the most comfortable about the possibility of losing. This game has more gravitational force sucking people into the Bears than any other game on Sunday. This kind of thinking always got the best of me before I realized my own tendencies. That still might not be enough to scare me off the Bears. Looking at last season's schedule, I've noticed the Bears held their opponents to 13 points or less in 10 games. The only team that physically beat the them was the always physical Steelers at Pittsburgh. The Bengals put up 24 on them last year but that was w/ a couple of unbelievably sick throws by Carson Palmer. Now that their offense is better, the opposition should have even less opportunity to score b/c the Bears should be stomping people in the time of possession battle. Sorry to ramble on but I knew I could find a weak link in the chain here. The Bears have only been favorites of 10 or more points once in the last 10 years. They were -13 vs San Fran last season and won the game 17-9 w/o covering. This is a major red flag.
Even when the Rams went nuts in 1999 they didn't draw so much attention to be -10 point favorites in Week 5. All it will take for the Bears not to cover is a couple near misses on long would be touchdown passes that become field goals. It would take a lot of balls to make this wager. (Don't try this at home.)
Bills +10 *
Rams-2 at Packers
I don't care for this match up at all. If you read my Monday Night Notes, you would think I'm crazy if the Rams aren't the pick. The knock on this game is who wants to bet on a "see saw" battle of bootball. Bootball is when neither team can stop the other one to the point which a football game resembles the NBA. My pick comes down to the way theses teams momentum appear to be going. The Rams players feel like all they needed was a coach who can be the glue that holds them together. You can tell they have faith in his system. The Packers players are looking over their shoulders knowing a housecleaning is coming in the offseason. A lot of bullshit for a game I still can't figure out.
Rams -2 *
San Diego -3.5 vs Pittsburgh
As far as I can tell, the oddsmakers are trying to trick people into thinking, how many are the Chargers going to win by w/ this line? Fools, the Steelers have lost 2 in a row so they suck right now. Wrong, their first loss to Jacksonville was kind of understandable. They should have given Batch another start after his fine performance in Week 1, Big Ben wasn't ready to start and looked rusty. I hate it when a player steps in, plays well, and is promptly put back on the bench in favor of a big name player. Back to the point, in their second loss to the Bengals, Cheeseburger started to show flashes of last season. Don't forget, he put the Steelers on his back and carried them in games vs Denver and Indy in the playoffs last year. The only reason the Steelers lost vs the Bengals was b/c "The Almighty Himself" stepped in on Carson Palmer's behalf and won the game for them. The Bengals also have a ballhawking secondary. The Chargers don't. Big Ben has had the necessary time to work w/ his receivers during the bye week. He should be the surprise of the week to the media. The only concern I have is the health of my favorite player, Hines Ward. The Steelers need this guy to have a decent game. I can't think of a better spot to catch the Steelers. Coming off 2 losses vs an inexperienced QB w/ a degree in "Martyball". Did anyone forget how good the Steelers play on the road?
Steelers +3.5* * *
New England -10 vs Miami
I really liked the Pats in this one until I thought about these 2 coaches being so chummy. That being aside, the Fish are already being chopped up into crab bait. The Dolphins can't block anybody. They couldn't put up any points vs the Titans or Texans. What happened to the team that looked halfway respectable vs the Steelers in Week 1. The Pats would just like to shut the media up for awhile. It shouldn't be a problem to score 30 something points from the field position Culpepper will give to them. The players don't care about friendship when the Division Ttitle is up for grabs. Don't worry about the Pat's beat up secondary. The Dolphins won't have time to exploit it.
Patroits -10 **
Indy -18.5 vs Tenn
The oddsmakers are going to make you pay for the Colts here. They just might run the tables on the lunatics taking the Colts. There are a lot of unknowns going into this one. How is the clubhouse responding to the Haynesworth incident in Tenn? I guess his absence won't matter b/c the Colts will score one way or another. It might help the people with the nerve to take the Titans or should I just say all the small time books forced to take them. The Colts would like to get some practice in for their running backs and Haynesworth absence will only make that idea more tempting. There is no real bad blood to speak in this Division rivalry. The Colts may grind out the clock and take it easy on the Titans. The Colts will have a hard time getting up for this one. They better not completely fall asleep. Vince Young had some encouraging moments vs Dallas last week. If the Colts' defense doesn't play better than last week, the Titans could surprise some people and score around 20 points. I suggest passing on this one.
Tenn +18.5 * LUNATIC FRINGE, I KNOW YOU'RE OUT THERE
Detroit +6.5 at Minnesota
The winless Lions are heading into the noisy Metrodome vs a team coming off 2 losses w/ a bye the following week. The Vikings in no way shape or form want to go into the bye week on a 3 game losing streak. Even Detroit can keep their attention this week. The kicker for me is a statistic I have on Minnesota. They are 37 - 5 - 1 against the spread coming off back to back losses when they win a game vs a Division opponent. The Vikings WR's want to redeem themselves and start "making plays". The Lions secondary is a good group to get healthy on.
Vikings -6.5 * I FEEL LIKE I'M WRONG HERE, THE LAST 2 WEEKS THE LIONS HAVE LET ME DOWN SO NOW THAT I'M GOING AGAINST THEM THEY WILL PLAY THEIR BEST GAME OF THE YEAR. THE VIKINGS NEED A BIG LEAD TO COVER SOME ANTICIPATED NEVER SAY DIE BULLSHIT THAT KITNA IS SURE TO PULL IN THE 4TH QUARTER
New Orleans -6.5vs Tampa Bay
The Saints have always given the Buccs a hard time. Even the year the Buccs won the Superbowl, they lost both games to the Saints. This game has some funk on it. Saints look like an easy pick at first glance. Do the Buccs have enough defense left to fluster Drew Brees? I think so. The Buccs are trying to save their season and are pulling together knowing a team effort is necessary to protect a rookie QB. Hell, Simms is a muddshark anyway. My thought on the game is it will be a weird one full of turnovers. The Saints win a low scoring contest by a funky score of 12 - 9, 16 -10. The Saints are playing a division game for the 3rd week in a row. Division games seem to be more taxing on teams' energy.
Buccs +6.5 * my baloney has a first name , it's poop and that's what I think of this game. NOTHING SOLID HERE, it make take a whole roll of tp to watch this game.
Dallas +2 at Philly
After looking at the stats from both of last years matchups, the Cowboys are the only way to go. This extremely high profile game has a better chance for the officials to get involved more than any other game on the plate Sunday. Visiting teams have the best chance of getting the old college "homer" treatment in Philly. The Boys defense should be the difference. My disdain for Iggle fans has got me rooting for the "anti player".
Dallas +2 * Go ahead and shine T.O., I love me too.
Carolina -8 vs Cleveland
The deciding match up in the game is the Panthers D line vs Cleveland's O line. If Charlie Frye has any time at all to throw the Browns WR could easily find the end zone a couple of times. Carolina's philosophy on Offense doesn't maket them a favorite team of mine when they lay a fair amount of points. I really hate agreeing w/ the masses, but this game looks like a gimme. All that hotel and airplane food has got to be gettin' to the Browns.
Carolina -8 *
Giants-4.5 vs Skins
The series was split last season. The Giants romped 36 - 0 in the first game which was at New York. Don't expect them to run away and hide in this one. It took the Skins half a season to hit stride last year, then they went on a hot streak. This year they may have found themselves already. These teams are so evenly matched, a call is hard to make. The Redskins have looked so good on offense lately that it is hard not seeing them keeping this one close at the very least. Did the Giants quit pointing fingers at each other and make a commitment to circling the wagons? I'll go w/ the team w/ momentum --
Washington +4.5 *
San Fran-3.5 vs Oakland
The Raiders may finally have an idea of just how bad they are being dogs to the Niners. I can picture a few of them being so oblivious to this notion that they still think even Da Raiders are still better than a bunch of pussies from San Fran. Will a thrashing from the Niners wake them up?Trouble is, most of them appear in a self induced coma of sorts. There is no team in Oakland, only a band of hodge podge players pretending to be professional athletes. I'm not even going to try to picture the game in my head for fear of nightmares The only thing that matters in this type of game is pride and the Raiders don't have any. What kind of parade was that.
Niners -3.5 * * I doubt the Raiders can put 20 plus points on the board two weeks in a row
Jacksonville -7 vs NY Jets.
The Jets have finally come up against a team that will physically overwhelm them. The Jaguars are coming off back to back losses in close games. They have a bye next week. What are the chances of being in the exact same scenario as the Vikings on the same day? The Jags have got to be salty and hungry for something to get that taste out of thier mouths. I still don't feel great about the Jags even though they are the pick. They have a little Jekyll and Hyde routine on offense that is hard to predict. If I knew they will go for the throat early, the Jags are an easy call. I don't have those types of connections.
Jaguars -7 * with a touch of reservation
Arizona +3 vs K.C.
You smell that? We have 2 teams here coming off games from both sides of the spectrum. If this was an honest line (meaning the oddsmakers are trying to split people 50/50 on the game), the Chiefs would be -7. I can't remember if the Cardinals offense showed more life in McNown's first start last year or if it took a few games for them to at least starting scoring some points. A team starting a Rookie in his first start that can't run the ball is only a 3 point dog. This terd must be made from TOTAL because it just keeps getting bigger and bigger. What the hell am I missing here? There is a lot of uncertainty on how the Chiefs O line will look on the road. I'm not worried about their QB. I don't think the Cards are going to start converting a bunch of 3rd downs running the ball anytime soon either. I just looked in my "holy book of sorts", Marc Lawrence's Playbook, the Cardinals were 0-4 against the spread as home dogs last season. Is there really some people walking the street who still believe the hype on Arizona's offseason improvements? Is Matt Leinart really good enough to step in and produce right away? Is that why the line is only 3 points? Why why why? The Cards would be better off w/ the heat to help them out. The most important matchup I can think of is the Chief running attack vs the Cards defense. If the Cards can take away the run, they could easily cover. I could have saved you from all of my thoughts and just wrote: The Chiefs are a veteran team from a tough division. They have the edge as far as all the intangibles go. The Chiefs are mediocre and mediocre teams w/ inflated egos usually pound on wouded ducks when presented the opportunity. The Cards are hit or miss. When they lose, they don't cover and when the win they do , I can't picture them winning the game outright.
Chiefs -3 * RUN AWAY THE CARDS AREN'T DEAD YET
Denver -4 vs Baltimore
I'm sure a lot of "experts" like the Ravens do to factors like matchups and such. The Ravens have had the Broncos number over the years. Last season when Denver won 12-10, they had just played a perennial big game for them at KC the week before. They will have a lot more energy for this one having a bye last week. The Ravens get on the plane after a tiring, hard fought battle w/ San Diego. I just had a moment of clarity. The Chargers were able to have some success vs the vaunted Ravens D at Balitmore. The Ravens offense is certainly going to have more problems w/ Denver's D than Denver vs Ravens Defense. This is going to come down to a few big plays, and the Bronco's are going to make them. How many picks is Plummer going to throw? Do you know any experts on predicting defensive TD's? Has Plummer really come out of the coma he has been in since the debauchery vs the Steelers last year? I wish I could have seen some of his TV interviews this week. When he starts batting his eyes like a lizard, he doesn't play like the snake on Sunday. All I have to go on is Denver's record at home last season, they won by more than 4 points in 5 out of 8 games. The Ravens have barely won a couple games vs some not so impressive teams. One last thing, at 4 - 0 the Ravens are due for a loss and Mile High altitudes are the perfect place to run out of breath.
Denver -4 *
All of my picks are subject to change by Sunday. I typically post them Sunday morning after getting weather reports and a last minute check on injuries. I will update them by noon Sunday if something comes up.
i like your style and logic. regards; zodiac don
Posted by: donbrame | October 08, 2006 at 08:08 AM