If you are unfamiliar w/ my site, be sure to go back to my 4 star rating system (titled Opening Kickoff 2006 dated 9/4/06)
Bengals -6 vs Pats
The Bengals had no business winning the game vs Pittsburgh. It would be a complete shock to me if they beat the Pats by more than 3 points if at all. Their once solid o-line suddening has some glaring holes. The Pats still do a descent job of rushing the passser. They haven't lost two games in a row since 2oo2. Corey Dillon would love to have one of his freakish games of over 200 yards vs his old team. That won't happen but the Bengals could easily give up 150 plus on the ground. The Bengals are coming off a huge pseudo victory vs their biggest rival. This team isn't strong enough mentally to blow out the Patriots the very next week. ENOUGH ALREADY
Pats +6 **
Bills-1 vs Vikings
The Bills couldn't stand the prosperity and found a way to lose to an inferior opponent. The Vikings look like they will be one of the more stable teams in the League. What will happen to Losman when the Vikings shut down McGahee? The game will be closer than it should be because the Vikings are probably beat up from a tough game vs the Bears.
This could be a game where we all say how did the Vikings get blownout by the Bills. 20% chance. The AFC East looks weak this year and the Bills have yet to step out of their Division. For me this game comes down to Brad Johnson vs JP Losman. Let's hope the Vikings defense has a good day. The Vikings clearly are the better team.
Vikings +1 *
Redskins +2.5 vs Jaguars
The Jaguars have just finished a brutal 3 game stretch. Do they have much left in the tank? What good is nearly 200 yards rushing vs Indy if you can't complete a five yard screen pass? They won't run for 100 vs Washington. Washington is a very tough venue to win at much less cover the spread.
Redskins +2.5 *
Jets-9 vs Colts
The Colts are going to have a 225 yard passer, a 100 yard rusher and win by 17. Peyton Manning is the most reliable QB on the road vs weaker opponents. The Colts record against the spread when they win on the road is outstanding. The Jets smoke and mirrors routine should be exploited. The Colts won the rematch a year later 38 - 31 but I guarantee Manning remembers the 41-0 whippin at the hands of Pennington in playoffs in New York in 2002.
Colts -9 *
Chiefs -7 vs 49ers
The 49ers were 2 touchdowns better at home last season. The Chiefs running game should have a big enough day to keep the 49ers offense off the field most of the game. The 49ers look like the perfect medicine for the Chiefs. Is Alex Smith ready to have a huge game at Arrowhead? I don't think so and neither does Ty Law. Even Larry Johnson can run wild on San Fran. Damon Huard is no scrub sporting at 5 - 2 record in career starts and is a little older and wiser now . Who knows, he may breathe new life into the offense with some mobility at QB for a change.
If you think the Niners can hold the Chiefs to less than 24 points, take 'em.
Chiefs -7 *
Raiders +3 vs Browns
My initial feeling is the Raiders coming off the bye have had to be catching so much hell for their efforts that even Da Raiders will show some life. The Browns are coming off a crushing defeat to a cross country trip vs a rested team. I wouldn't take the Browns unless I knew they were good for 22 points.
Raiders +3 *
Houston +3.5 vs Miami
David Carr vs Get Your Roll on Pimp, Culpepper. Where's the Bakerman now? This should be a comedy. Everyone has been getting to Duante. Don't overlook the fact that Brunell had more time to think than Culpepper will to throw. What's wrong w/ me? I like the Texans in this Mudsquad Mee Lee, Check out Carrs' garbage time rating of 113.6. That makes me laugh.
Texans +3.5 neither team looks like a wise decision
Gles -10.5 vs Fudge
10.5 is a ton going aginst the most vain QB of all time. He killed me last year vs Carolina on Monday night, Hey Brett, I don't think many people enjoy watching you pad your stats. The Eagles defense won't be dominant the entire game and the Packers may have found something that works.
Packers +10.5 *
Panthers -7 vs Saints
All of the info I have tells me the Saints are the pick. For instance, the home team in the series is 1-10 vs the spread in the last 11 matchups. I have a few more quirky stats on the game but I'll spare you the details. Going on from what I've seen, the Panthers should win handily. If Brees doesn't get sacked 7 times I will be amazed. Does anyone think the Falcons laid down Monday night besides me. The risk of injury on that shitty field might have made the Falcons mad enough to just say F IT. The Saints victories over GB & CLEVE look a little better now but I still have my doubts. The Panthers look like they might be ready to cut down on mistakes and explode on somebody. My final prediction is the Saints get a late cheap backdoor cover.
Saints +7 *
Ravens +2 vs Chargers
This game is truly unbettable to me. Maybe someone out there who knows these teams better than me can help us out with an email/comment. The Ravens offense is mediocre at best if you haven't seen them yet. The Chargers have run up the score on 2 of the worst teams in the league. This is the first game Rivers will be asked to put the team on his back and win the game w/ his arm. Don't be too quick to think Rivers will look like Drew Brees in the 3rd game of the year. After watching the Ravens sputter vs Cleveland, (if Mason isn't open, the chance of completing a pass is 20% or less). I would have to take a leap of faith on Rivers if I were stupid enough to bet this game.
San Diego * -2.5
Titans +9 vs Cowboys
The Cowbosy defense is the only thing you can count on here. The Titans still have a few pass rushers who have a chance to get at the immobile Bledsoe. The Cowboys locker room is starting to feel the T.O. effect. The Cowboys aren't good road favorites to begin with, besides having the circus come to town. With Vince Young making his first career start everyone in America will be on the Cowboys which I find discouraging. How many times have you seen a game that looks so easy go the other way. Dallas is the pick but don't get carried away with them.
Dallas -9
Falcons-7 vs Cardinals
I think the new turf had something to do with the Falcons no show on Monday Night. The Falcoons shouldn't have any problem running the ball and Warner is a sitting duck. Don't expect Warner to have a game like Brady did at Atlanta last season. You have to wear the Falcons defense out first which will be impossible for a team with no running game at all. PLEASE MR MEXICO don't f*** me this time.
Falcons -7 *
Rams -5 vs Lions
No sense wasting time on these alsorans. The Rams are not worthy of trusting to cover as favorites. Winless teams play hard unless they are truly pathetic. Lions are desperate to get off the shnide.
Lions + 5
Bears -3.5 vs Seahawks
Hard to not like the home team in a night game. I'm not crazy about them but the Bears are the pick.
Bears -3.5 *