Beezerspalace

Week 9 quick picks

Pats-1 vs Colts      the Pats look like they are ready to reclaim their status as top DOGS in the league again. The team that runs better in this game will win. L Maroney and C Dillon run for 200 yds combined while Peyton gets a good view from the sideline. Pats win

Steelers -1 vs Broncos    the Snake gets a chance to redeem himself.  this is a rough coin flip game ,I would love to see Denver win and put the nail in the coffin in the Steelers season. it probably won't happen, the Steelers are at their best with their backs to the wall.

Ravens -3 vs Bengals     after being swept by the Bengals last season the Ravens won't be short on motivation. this game won't even be close. the Ravens are almost stone cold locks!  MOOO  , green acres is the place for me , I see a farm bet ensuing

Skins +1 vs Cowboys      a tough call,  the Skins DEF has been so bad recently that even the BOYS will squeak out a win on the road. 

Bears -13.5 vs Dolphins     don't expect to start counting your money in the first quarter again if you take the Bears.  Miami's D you will make you a sweat this one a little but the Bears should cover going up against Joey turnover Harrington.

Buccs +1 vs Saints      what kind of bullshit are the oddsmakers trying to pull here. the Saints will be focused after losing last week. the Buccs offense is terrible, the Saints have enough balance on offense to pull one out on the road.  D Brees will take care of the ball vs the Buccs D.

Jaguars-9 vs Titans     the Jags will be happy to play ball control focusing on field position while making theTitans beat their defense. not exactly a recipe for a cover. at first look, I like the Titans in this division battle to at least cover.

Giants -13 vs Texans      Sage Rosensomething sparked the Texans last week. If he starts this Sunday I would steer clear of this line and take the over.

Falcons-5 at Lions     the Falcons could have a letdown after two big wins. I'm not crazy about them here. Will Atlanta go on a run like they did a few seasons ago? the Lion's DeF has looked so bad the Falcons are the only choice you have in this game.

Chargers-11.5 vs Browns       Rueben Droughn's won't run for 50 yards in this one. The Bolts at home are too much for Cleveland. the Chargers may have a hard time getting up for this game, that scares me a little when thinking about giving up so many points. the Bolts strong running game makes them the pick. M Turner won't mind padding his stats in the second half while keeping the never say die Browns off the field.

Bills-3.5 vs Packers     something stinks here, this game should be a pick'em. B Favre getting points vs Losman looks too good to be true.  Neither team has a dominant defense. The Pack has plenty of momentum going into this game. They have been consistently moving the chains with good balance on offense. Before checking all the data at my disposal the Pack looks pretty good here, almost too good.

Vikings-6.5 at 49ers      after a short week plus the long flight the Vikings will not be up to snuff here.  San Fran is very pesky at home. The Vikes will try to make this a short game by pounding away at the Niners w/ C Taylor.  The Pats made a blueprint on how to go after the Vikings D. A Smith is not T Brady but he should be able to lead his team to around 17-20 points. that should be enough for a cover.

Rams-2.5 vs Chiefs        heads you win, tails you lose,   don't go all in with a small pair here. only a punter w/ a big pair would make a wager here.   who knows? the data might favor one team so much my opinion could change by the weekend.

these are not my final decisions, sometime next weekend I will post my long version of WHO , WHY and HOW many.    

Sunday Morning Update Week 8

After sleeping on my post from yesterday there are a few picks I made that I have my doubts on.

Packers vs Cards

The Cardinals have a good chance of losing today at Green Bay. The hangover from the Bears game may stick around for awhile. They have some key guys hurt on defense as well. While the Pack is sure to give up a few big plays , I don't think their defense is so bad that the Cards will run the ball effectively enough to match the Packers score for score in what should be another Packers game shootout.  The Pack has taken a few lumps of their own recently and will not be bothered at all by running up the score for the Cheeseheads.

Eagles -7.5 vs Jags         this line has moved considerably in the last 36 hrs. the injuries to some key leaders on the Jags D means you can't even rely on them for a good defensive effort. The Jags haven't scored many points on the road vs a descent team in the last two years. This game should be watched for entertainment only. I strongly recommend staying clear of a 7.5 favorite that has lost two games in a row even if they had 500 yds of offense last week.  Passing yds don't mean a thing in the redzone, this could easily be a 16 -10 ballgame, bad things keep happening to the Eagles. wait until you know the worm has turned for them

Colts vs Broncos     Colts injuries on DEF are starting to add up, I liked the Colts because I thought they could at least slow the Broncos down some.  Tatum Bell might run for 150 plus yds. this game is unbettable

I really struggled w/ most of my decisions this week. That usually means it will be a day of the DOGS.  these are my favorites plays for the day. I have the most confidence in the Titans

Tenn-3    Falcons+3.5    Packers/Cards over    Raiders+9

Week 8

It's funny how this Sunday's games coincide w/ this weekend's Halloween party season.  There are quite a few bonfire games.  Sometimes you have to take a stab at a weiney roast, but some games just get too hot after kickoff.  The chances of burning yourself is too great.  Once again, the schedule maker has got us again.  I think I finally pegged the goofiness of this year's schedule.  Due to MNF's new policy of selecting the best games on Monday late in the season they have saved all the big division games for last. There is too much speculating in nonconf games to begin with but the absence of letdowns due to rivalrys is a drag. More than a few teams have mind boggling stats after certain opponents, go buy your own helpful stats at playbook.com and find out for yourself. There's nothing else like money and TV ratings to fuck up a good thing. We all need to be patient.  As soon as the Thursday night, Saturday night games and who know's what else start, we will be able to catch teams in serious binds.  Imagine a team having to travel for a Thursday game after slugging it out on the road vs a division opponent the week before.  This week's games seem harder than last week to me.                by the way, I went 8-4 vs the number last Sunday

Tennessee -3  vs Houston

The Titans have run the ball so well lately it's hard not to like them.  V. Young is making a believer out of me.  I didn't see the Texans game last week, so I'm going to have to rely on my experience and gut here.  Apparently Leftwich laid his occasional egg vs Houston.  The Texans always give the Jags a hard time.  (Must be a personal type of thing.)  Don't think the Texans are going to make leaps and bounds overnight.  Their defense still needs work.  They may score a few points but the Titans ability to make long sustaining drives will wear out the Texans.  This game has a chance to be a high scoring entertaining affair.  Eventually the Texans will stall on a few drives b/c of incomplete passes in 3rd and long situations.  I see a game in which the Titans pull away in the 4th Quarter.  Don't wait to get on the bus until after kickoff. 

Titans-3** and the over

Bengals  -3.5  vs Falcons

This has game of the week written all over it.  The Bengals are back to full strength at WR.  We have Chris Henry to thank for CJ Loudmouth's outburst.  What a pussy, he knows the Falcons can't cover all 3 WR's, so he started talkin' again.  Somebody on the Falcons is going to try to break his jaw like in the Browns game.  I'm pissed I am wasting my energy talkin' about this clown.  CJ can't beat dbl coverage, never goes over the middle ala Andre Reed or Jerry Rice, and crys when they win.  He's the poster boy for this team.  Take a deeper look into his mentality and you have microcosm of the whole team.  This is part of my prognosis on this game.  Afer winning one game, they seem to have lost their memory .  I sense a false sense of security.  The Patriots ran all over the Bengals.  The Falcons are the best running team to play them since that game.  So what if the Bengals Defense looked good vs the Buccs and Panthers.  The Panthers are one of the worst teams' on 3rd down.  Why? because they can't run the ball.  I cannot stress enough the advantages running teams have over passing teams.  Both teams will have success moving the chains.  The difference will come down to a couple of wide open drops or mistimed throws.  The Bengals wil be in these situations more than the Falcons.  Quick note:  The Steelers shredded the Falcons secondary last week w/ quick timing patterns designed to exploit holes in zone coverage.  C. Palmer is not as sharp as last year.  The Bengals passing game is different.  The Steelers O line is better than the Bengals O line right now.  The Falcons may be able to pressure C. Palmer w/ more success than they had vs Pitt.  The Falcons don't have to respect big play speed out of Rudi J. Don't get me wrong. The lead in this game should change 4 or 5 times, the game should be a high scoring nailbiter. The final word is that the Bengals aren't good enough to run away from the Falcons. I couldn't tell you who will win but it won't be by much.

Think about the psyche of M. Vick for a second....the last time he faced the Bengals he won 30 - 3.  He doesn't have any demon games to remember vs this team.  Picture the young linebackers of the Bengals overpursuing M. Vick and W. Dunn.  I seriously doubt the Bengals can put Vick into where's Alge Crumpler mode.   Once the Bengals realize they can't stop the Falcons ground game, the pressure to keep up will negatively affect their passing attack.  I would be pleasantly surprised to see the Bengals handle this kind of pressure but in reality, they can't. 

Falcons +  3.5**

Browns  -1.5  vs Jets

Frye vs Pennington      Pick the winner and you got a cover.  The Brown's personnel changes show how deep their offensive problems go.  They certainly will look better vs the Jets as opposed to their last two games vs Denver and at Carolina.  Not exactly picnics.  A thought just came to me, is it possible some players are upset with the firing of M. Carthon?  There might be a little hangover from this.  The coaches don't play, there is only so much you can do when your o-line is banged up.  The locker room in Cleveland may not be the chummiest place to be right now.

The Jets have showed more consistency on offense all season.  C. Frye has a much better chance of throwing a few picks than Pennington.  You don't need to look at the stats on these teams to know the Jets have the advantage as far as the intangibles go.  Winning teams find ways to win and losing teams find ways to lose.  The Jets have a little bit more confidence going having played a few practice games vs Miami and Detroit.  This should carry over into a game where the teams are evenly matched. The Brownies are sure to put up a good fight but all the effort in the world won't make the mistakes associated with such an abrupt change any better. The only thing going for the Browns here is that they should fight to the death after losing two in a row. It's just a mere flesh wound, the Browns do their impersonation of the BLACK KNIGHT from the Holy Grail in this game while Leonard Washington keeps the dice hot until Rodney"Quills" Dinkins gets back for the Jets. Both teams will know exactly how to exploit the other's DEF. The Jets have the better QB to execute a game plan.

Jets  +1.5*

Bears  -16.5  vs 49ers

For all you Maroons out there thinking the Bears want to atone for their poor showing at Arizona, you might like to know the Bears are 0 - 5 - 1 vs the spread coming off the bye.

The Niners are good for 10 points.  You'll need help from a few defensive TD's for a cover.

This is basic common sense.  You get 16.5 points in an NFL game before kickoff.

49ers   +16.5*

Chiefs -6  vs Seahawks

I'm guessing Huard will try as hard as he can to play.  He's been playing well enough to keep Green on the bench in my opinion.  Is he going to quit now after holding a clipboard for awhile?  It doesn't matter, Seneca Wallace is starting his first game at Arrowhead.  If Dante Hall has to hand off to LJ, the Chiefs are still in better shape.  The Seahawks may be falling into full blown Super Bowl loser mode.  I wouldn't make a decision on the Chief's until 5 minutes before the game when we'll know who's playing QB.  If Huard plays, the Chiefs look pretty good, otherwise, Ty Law might outscore both young QB's.

Chiefs - 6*

Giants -9 vs Buccs

I would love the Giants here if it wasn't for one thing.  The players complained that the field at Dallas Monday night was unusually hard.  They had a rash of known injuries, besides other players who are sore.  This may pose as a distraction.  We may not see maximum effort from the GMEN.

If you like the GMEN, it's obvious why.  Eli Manning may have turned the corner is starting to resemble ole reliable himself (Peyton).  The Buccs are going to look worse on offense than last week.  They are a scary proposition.  I'm going to stick w/ my original prognosis.  When I picture myself watching the game with a C note in the balance, I see the Giants shooting themselves in the foot just enough to make me lose it.  Big Monday Night Hangover.  One 50 yard bomb to Galloway plus a flukey defensive TD means the GMEN have to score 25 + points to cover.  They may not be in the mood.

Buccs  +9*

Chargers  -9.5  vs Rams

There's no place like home.  Can you believe its Week 8 AND the Bolts are playing only their 3rd home game?  The info I have on this game tells me to find a better game; you should too.  But for those of you who want my opinion, the Rams are just as bad on the road as they are good at home vs the AFC.  We are going to find out just how tough the Chargers are mentally in this game.  Will they let last week's loss hang over or blow out the Rams?  Don't try to figure this out and take the over.

Rams  +9.5*     Over 45**

I really didn't want to make a call on the spread but the over looks pretty solid

Saints -2  vs Ravens

The Ravens are going to out physical the Saints.  This is a classic case of AFC vs NFC.  The Ravens have the better D while the Saints offense has looked much better than the Ravens.  I really think the Ravens defense is the best that the Saints have yet to face.  Steve McNair and company should be able to score enough points to make the defensive effort hold up.

Baltimore +2*

Raiders +8.5 vs Steelers

An old school rivalry plus Halloween makes for some serious recreational activity in Oakland Sunday.  The Steelers are reeling after a long game on the road at Atlanta.  Now they make the dreaded West Coast trip to a place they are despised.  Da Raiders will be sky high for this one.  The Steelers will be happy with an ugly win.

Raiders +8.5**

Eagles -6   vs Jaguars

No matter how you slice them the Eagles are almost a full touchdown favorite after losing two games in a row.  Teams that have lost two in a row that come back as favorites are not good propositions.  The Eagles have a tendency not to cover vs AFC teams at home.  Do you want to put your "trust" in the Jags.  I didn't think so, but you'll have to in order to win some dough here.

Jaguars +6*

Packers -3.5  vs Cardinals

Just when you count them out, the Cards show back up.  My pick here is based on the wounded psyche of the Cards.  If they don't play hard in this game, we can pick on them the rest of the season.  The Cardinals remind me of low to mid level college teams such as Memphis State that only get get up for TV and famous name teams.  Besides the Pack is still the Pack.  They are one of the weakest favs on the board. If any team wouldn't mind running up the score its the Pack at home for the fans. If your crazy enough to get on the Redbirds take the over as well

Cardinals   +3.5*      over 45

Panthers -5  vs Cowboys

The Cowboys match up well w/ the Panthers for some reason.  The Panthers haven't lit anyone up this year.  Take the points in a defensive struggle.

Cowboys +5*

Broncos   -2.5   vs Colts

A classic case of defense vs offense.  Is the best defense a good offense or does defense win championships. This is not a championship game. The Broncos D gets their first real test of the season. Denver is going to score close to their average of 17 points. The Colts have proven they can score on anybody. Even if they win at home, Plummer is a 5 ton ankle weight holding his team down. Who knows, Shanahan may serve up Jake to the Colts just so he can bench him. It is a waste of time to think the Snake will lead the Broncos to a championship past the AFC WEST. Is it too late for a backup QB to come off the bench and win the Super Bowl?  The Colts have been gashed a few times lately vs the run. Thats the reason you can't load up on them here.     they make descent dogs in a parlay

Colts +2.5

Cowboys vs Giants

This game is best left alone, anyone calling a lock here is a boiler room con artist.  I'm sure the experts love the Giants. It is hard to go against all the obscure stats on the GMEN but the more I think about this game the more I like the Cowboys.  last year at Dallas the Giants couldn't do anything until their last drive tied the game at 13 all. This time around  the Cowboys are going to score 24 pts at least. If the Giants wait until the 2nd half to make their push it will be too late,  Monday night games always get the fans in rare form, the crowd noise is louder than a normal game. This is a statement game for the Cowboys, they are better than last year.  The GMEN can't handle both TO and Terry Glenn.   After chewing up 2 swiss cheese defenses(falcons redskins) , the GMEN are in for a shock at Dallas.    TAKE THE HOME TEAM IF YOU MUST                      

Week 7 Picks

Last week was not the greatest due to the fact that I didn't stick to my guns. If you go back and read my predictions for week 5 you'll notice that I was a week early on both the Bears and Steelers. All that I had to do to be successful in week 6 was be true to myself instead of letting a couple of wrong picks make me question my own bullshit. When I'm wrong about a particular team I lose faith in them too quickly. Go back and look at my prediction on the Bears/Panthers playoff game from last season. You will see that I was one season too early on the Bears also . The reason I'm mentioning this game is because I was so mad I was wrong that I let the outcome of this game affect my thinking on the Bears six games into this season. So what do I do, watch them cover like mad waiting for last years Bears to showup. Its  just my luck that I wait to get on them until the biggest sucker game of the year to date. This is something that I have to work on, not to worry, this is something I plan on doing for a long time.  My goals are long term, those of you reading this have the chance to see if I can elevate my own game to the point where people are hangin on my every word or not.   In my mind this huge feat does not seam out of reach. Creating this site will only help me become more organized and focused. It's like taking notes that I can go back and check on. Hopefully in five years, I will have transformed myself into "Boobie the Greek".  Beezer is not all that bad of knickname but I prefer what all of my oldschool friends call me," Boob ".  Don't really like to talk about myself too much but I thought people might want a better idea of who's behind the madness.  My first name is Brian but if you call me by name I know we're not that good of friends. Beezer doesn't sound like all that good of knickname if you don't pronounce it right. For instance , when you say, "what's up Beezer"   the pronounciation of what's up should be longer than Beezer. Nobody ever drags out Beeeeeezzzzzer.  ENOUGH       back to football      as you can see I have an eye for reading between the lines so to speak but my ability to consistently process information needs work. Sometimes it can be difficult not to out think myself,  but those fall into all the ifs , buts and what ifs associated with gambling.  At times in my life I have played damn near scratch golf for more than a few months at a time.  Right before I made the completely mental breakthrough of being a high 70's shooter to a low 70's shooter I knew the improvement was coming but I just couldn't put my finger on it. That's where I am with handicapping, I have the knowledge to know what to do but a few tendencies that are holding me back from being at my best all the time. I'm impressed if you are still reading. THANX   by the way, last week I was 5-7-1 vs the spread

                    PICKS ARE IN BOLD

Bengals-3 vs Panthers       why is this game at least not a pick'em,  this line looks like the oddsmakers are hoping a few people out there still believe in the Bengals. For the Bengals to cover they will have to intercept Delhomme more than twice. Everyone is talking about the Bengals O-line problems, did they forget after what appeared to be a descent showing vs Tampa that their Defense has more problems than the offense.  check to make sure D Foster is somewhat healthy bfore taking the plunge.  The Panthers look like one of the best plays this week.       As insurance take the over and go for the double dip.  If the Bengals somehow cover, this game is going over.   The worst you could do is pay the juice cause there is no way the Bengals and the under are both coming in.  update the weather is calling for high winds, the over doesn't seem like a good idea. The Panthers D looks better all the time in a game where the offenses might struggle.

Broncos-4.5 at Browns   It's easy to see why Bronco fans despise the Snake, he could bite you here if you have the nerve to go Bronco riding in Cleveland on Sunday. Sizing up Denver is like watching a descent parade until you notice a couple of horses doing their business. Denver is fun to watch play defense until Jake starts doing his. My problem with this game is that the Brownies look a little too logical.  The Broncos were saving their energy for upcoming games vs Oakland. It seems logical that they will be more aggressive in their play calling on the road. The Browns O-line is in for a real struggle.  Denver can shut out the Browns if they feel like it.  The Broncos have already lost their surprise game at St. Louis this year . Even the coach knows some confidence and momentum are necessary for upcoming games vs Indy and Pittsburgh.  Broncos break out vs a team they clearly outmatch. If you think the Browns will score more than 14 points,  TAKE ' EM

Chargers -5  at Chiefs   The Chiefs are 14 - 2 - 1 vs the number as division home dogs after allowing more than 34 points the week before.  They are 9 - 1 as home dogs vs opponents off back to back wins.  Arrowhead is a tough place for young QB's to shine.  The Chiefs will get a couple of chances at the Bolts secondary that has yet to be challenged, it is the soft spot of their D.  Chiefs bounce back at home after a long strange trip on the road.

Jets-3.5   vs.  Lions       As long as Kitna and Roy Williams keep their thing going, I can't see the Jets pulling away from Detroit.  The Lions were in close games with the Rams and had Minnesota beat before throwing the game away.  The Jets are not good enough to expose the Lions injury problems.  This could be a shootout.  You should know the Lions are 3 - 21 - 2 away vs the number vs AFC teams that won the week before.  Don't make them a cornerstone, these stats don't always hold up.  The Jets are not strong enough to be trusted as favs.

Patroits-5.5 at Bills      The weather looks like it will make for a sloppy game.  This game will be decided by who runs the ball better.  Bills run defense is starting to look a lot like last year's Bills.  The Bills are limping in to their bye week while the Pats are leaping out of theirs.

Steelers-3   at Atlanta      Don't assume the Steelers will cruise like they did vs K.C.  I remember the 34 -34 tie these teams played a few seasons ago.  M. Vick had a good game vs the vaunted Steeler D.  The Falcons will play w/ more intensity then we have have seen out of them all year.  The Steelers don't have enough diversity on offense like the Giants to make the Falcons D look bad.  Somehow the Falcons keep it close enough to cover.

Cardinals-3 at Raiders      It will be very interesting to see how the Redbirds respond after one of the most painful losses ever.  The Cards D is not the Broncos.  Da Raiders looked halfway decent on defense vs Denver last week.  They have some decent DB's  At 0-5 they will play much harder than the Bears who were obviously overlooking the Cards.  Once again, the ability to not finish drives will haunt the Cards.  Field goals might get the win but not a cover.  No matter how they try, the Cards will be flat until the second half.  Picking the Raiders doesn't make sense.  That's why I like 'em.

Eagles-6 at Buccs     Coach Reid's team is 7-1 vs the number when they are road favs coming off a loss.  The Eagles D should make the rookie look like a rookie.

Jaguars  -9  at Texans    -  The Texans injury report read like a novel.  The Jags were swept by their division foes in 2004.  They probably have a little more respect for them than most teams.  The fact that the Jags are on the road has me thinking they will be less inclined to play stall ball.  Even if they do the Texans will struggle to stop them.  Carr is such a garbage time hero, it makes me queazy about the Jags covering.  The Jags aren't locks.

Seattle -7 vs Minnesota       The Vikings had the bye week to combat the problems associated with the long west coast trip.  They have a defense capable of slowing down the Seahawks.  Look back at last season, the Seahawks didn't blow out any decent teams on their schedule.  Vikings open up the playbook and keep this one close.

Colts -9  vs Skins     Colts D is not good enough to cover this line.  Will the Skins get their head out of their ass and give Portis 25 touches?  Both teams might run the ball so much, this game might just fall under the total of 47.5

Stick with this Skins.

Dolphins -5.5 vs Packers      I don't care how bad the Pack is, a bad team like the Fish can't be trusted to cover.

My four favorite plays today are:

Carolina +3          Patriots -5.5

Philly - 6              Washington +9

If you like underdogs I suggest playing at BODOG.   they always have the biggest lines, here are my BEEZERDOGS FOR BODOG

Lions +4   Skins+9    Chiefs +6   Giants +3.5    the extra half point will go a long way on theGmen

The pick or not the pick Eagles vs Buccs

I'm sitting thinking the Eagles look like the pick vs Tampa on Sunday . The Gles are smarting from a loss where the Saints looked very clever keeping McNabb off the field. The Saints knew they couldn't stop Philly. It is doubtful the rookie will come close to impersonating Drew Brees .  Is it a stretch to think the Eagles Defense is better than the Bengals or Saints.  These teams haven't sqared off in a while so it is hard to get a feel for how they will matchup.  The Buccs Oline can't be as good as the Saints.  The Buccs were happy to get a first down vs the sickly Bengals D last week. They are not good enough to play keep away vs Philly.  Once the Eagles get a 10 point lead the rookie will look like the rookie he is.  The knock on the Eagles is that they are roadweary while the Buccs will be juiced up after last weeks pseudo victory.  Good teams don't lay eggs two weeks in a row do they?   For me this is as easy as a 12 year old would see it. McNabb on fire vs the rookie.  As soon as I finished this I remebered two rookies that played pretty good last week.  Is there something I'm forgetting here?  The Eagles would be -6 to -7.5 if it wasn't for a very cheap roughing the passer call vs the Bengals last week. My feeling is the Eagles are in no mood for a close game. Look for then to go for the throat early. If you don't think they can execute this plan, take the Buccs

Monday quick picks for week 7

Here's my early predictions for next week before information overload gets the best of me. It's not always the case but sometimes I'm better when yesterdays games are fresh in my mind. A lot can happen between now and Sunday , all picks are subject to change.  picks are in bold

Pats -5.5 vs Bills    besides being rested, all the stats I have heavily favor the PATS

Panthers+3 at Bengals    Panthers are better than the Buccs and Patriots , the Bengals O-line has serious injury issues ,  here comes the stellar Panthers D-line   

Chargers -5.5 at Chiefs     has Rivers ever played a down at Arrowhead,   most qbs making their first start at KC don't fare too well    that's the only thing I can think of going for the Chiefs in this game.    Chief's suddenly patchwork O-line will struggle,   Bolts for less than a TD look cheap

Lions +3.5 at Jets    the Jets are not good enough to be 1 point favorites

Jaguars -9.5 vs Texans    the Texans were bad enough before losing 3 starters at Dallas , they are by far the worst team in the league now that Culpepper is benched.  I'll puke if the JAGS play like the Broncos last night vs da Raiders   

Browns +4.5 vs Broncos      Browns D is respectable at home, even some Raiders were seen downfield catching passes vs Denver.   I see the Browns somehow scoring 14 to 16 points, Plummer won't let you down on the road

Falcons +1.5 vs Steelers     Big Ben won't have all day to throw,   the last time these two matched up the final was a 34 all tie.  I like the Falcons in this coin toss

Redskins +9.5 at Colts       I'll take the points vs a weakened Colts D

Eagles -4 at Buccs        McNabb is good for 20 plus points, the Eagles D will tighten up after last weeks loss. their strong pass rush should be too much for the rookie

Cowboys-3.5 vs Giants   Cowboys at home two weeks in a row, Giants are on the road again,  the GMEN have played so well it is hard to go against them,   Cowboys passing attack will roll vs Giants weak secondary

Seahawks-7 vs Vikings      after a big win vs the rival RAMS last year the Hawks came home and won convincely,   The conservative Vikings can't play shootout with the Seahawks

Raiders +3 vs Cardinals      the Raiders look like all the losing is finally getting to them,

Dolphins-3.5 vs Packers    go with the better defense

Week #6 Picks

I've never been a big surfer on the net.  After looking at some other blogs concerning football I realized picks are just meaningless picks like Chick McGee's without a clear purpose.  I'm going to try something different, you can start calling me the Beezerdog b/c I'm taking aim at the most popular internet service out there.  For the rest of this season I will only use the lines from
Bodog. 

It seems like bad timing since the law just passed to make it harder to use online services.  I have faith in people to find a way around it.  The lines at Bodog look similar to what your local bookie would have on any given Sunday anyway.

Back when I first took an interest in handicapping a long, long time ago, the only thing that was available to me was the standard "Bowling Alley Parlay Card."  The lines were always stretched and the easy games were never to be found on the card.  Better yet, the minimum number of games you had to pick was 4.  My goal each week was to find 4 teams worthy of my parlay card.

More than a couple of times I've had the unfortunate experience of tracking down seedy types who never expect anyone to win.

I'm going to call my weekly 4 teamer the "Fantastic Four".  These will be what I feel are the 4 safest picks on the board.  I suggest playing a parlay with all 4 teams combined with a wager on each game for the same unit .

I just checked out the consensus report on www.wagerline.com.  Does anyone watch the games anymore or do they trust the media's opinion to help them pick games?  The whole site must be filled w/ college kids.  What a joke.

Fantastic four play for Bodog  --  Picks are in bold

Tampa Bay +5.5 vs Cincinnati

Giants +3 at Falcons

Redskins -10.5 vs  Titans

Bears -11.5 at Cardinals

OTHER GAMES

Denver -14.5  vs Raiders    The Raiders will not score a TD on offense, even the Broncos can score 30 points if given the time.

Rams +3  vs Seahawks    All the statistical history and home field advantage is pointing in the Rams favor.

Dolphins +3   at Jets  I know the Jets own the Fish but my guts say the Jets defense will struggle today vs a desperate team.

Houston +13.5   at Cowboys   If you're gonna be a team in Texas, you don't want to be 2nd fiddle in the band.

Chiefs +7  at Steelers    Chief's defense has changed under Herm Edwards.  Surprisingly, it's the defense that keeps this one close.

Ravens -3  vs Panthers    This game will be a mirror image of the Ravens Broncos Monday night matchup.  Only the Ravens are the ones that pull this game out in the end.

New Orleans +3.5  vs Eagles    The extra half a point will go a long way here.  Eagles defense is overrated.

Chargers -10  vs Niners    The left tackle and guard for the Niners are doubtful.  They don't have much to back them up.  If it weren't for these injuries I would call this the sucker game of the week.  Shockingly, if you look at the Bolt's schedule the Niners could possibly be the best offense they have faced all season if the Niners were at full strength.  The Niners are sandwiched between last week's big game vs Pitt and a big game next week at KC on the Charger's schedule.  It's still not enough.

Bills -1.5   vs Lions

I really don't want to have to make a pick here.  The Bills have the passing game to exploit Detroit's weak secondary and the Lions are banged up.

Week 5

Much like a team coming off a big win, this week is going to be difficult for me to repeat last week's performance.  My overall record was only 8 - 5 - 1 against the spread, but if you read my predictions carefully, you'll notice that I recommended not wagering on the games I was wrong about to begin with. 

Hey, there's a reason to check out my picks.  Just go against me on the games I recommend not betting on at all.  In case you are too lazy to go back and check yourself, the teams that I incorrectly picked in Week #4 were the Vikings +1, Lions +5.5, Chargers -3.5, Colts -9, and the Packers +10.5.  Four of these games were coin flips, while my call the Packers was stupid to say the least.  I just can't get the memory of last year's Panthers Packers game out of my head.  The Panthers were -7.5 favs in a game you knew there was no way they could lose to Green Bay.  I can't remember exactly how many points the Panthers were up, but it was around 24.  The game was out of hand when ole #4 decided to mount one of his trademark comebacks.  Trouble is, that it was so obvious the Pack had no chance to win the game I was embarrassed for ole #4 himself.  He looked like a redshirt freshman QB getting his first snaps at Michigan in a blowout late in a game vs Milkweed state.  I don't need to tell you that the Pack covered in one of the cheapest displays of football I have ever seen.  I still get pissed remembering that one. 

This year's Packers are different.  Ole #4 looks like he is out on an island.  A couple more losses and the season is over for them.  They should be easy prey after that.  They suck.  I feel better now.  As you can see, I always pick my reasoning apart when I'm wrong.  You can't get any better if you don't . 

My only two star game of the week was the Patroits who surprised a lot of people out there except for those lucky souls out there taking a stroll through "Beezerspalace".  Amongst the other seven games that I correctly called were a few that I should have rated a little higher - New Orleans, KC, Atlanta, Dallas and Washington were not the hardest games in the world to call.  I'll work on getting the easy games correctly sorted out.  The other 2 teams correctly chosen, Houston and Da Raiders were not worthy risking your money on.  When you see me make a crazy call like that, I'm trying to warn you from taking the other team.

Week #5

Buffalo +10 at Chicago

Grossman vs Losman

This may seem like a stretch, but the Bills have the edge at WR.  Lee Evans is underrated.  The Bills will try to go "up top" to Evans a few times just trying to shake a few things loose, i.e. team morale, game momentum, and the Bears defensive player's minds.  The Bills know that it will take an extraordinary effort to somehow get the W.  It is a fair assumption that the Bills offense should have more problems with Chicago's defense than vise versa.  I figure the Bills are good for 14 points.  Determining who will cover all comes down to the Bills defense and special teams.  The Bears were firing on all cylinders vs Seattle.  I would be surprised if their offense just steps right in where they left off from the game vs the Seahawks.  The Bills have a little more hope and enthusiasm going for them than the Seahawks, which should make for a better game.  I'm trying to say that it's possible the Seahawks thought they were beat before they got off the plane.  Poor little us, we've lost our shepard Sean Alexander.  Back to the point, are the Bills capable of holding the Bears to under 24 points?  Will Chicago try to cover Evans w/ 1 on 1 man coverage?  When it comes down to it - this game seems right on the number.  Its early, but I'm having conflicting ideas about this one.  Am I right thinking Vegas has the turnovers factored into the line of -10 ?  J.P. Losman has been known to turn the ball over at times.  The Bears are turnover bandits.  Man, I'm having a hard time finding a reason to like the Bills except for one, when people start thinking about parting w/ their hard earned money before making a wager, they look for a game that makes them feel the most comfortable about the possibility of losing.  This game has more gravitational force sucking people into the Bears than any other game on Sunday.  This kind of thinking always got the best of me before I realized my own tendencies.  That still might not be enough to scare me off the Bears.  Looking at last season's schedule, I've noticed the Bears held their opponents to 13 points or less in 10 games.  The only team that physically beat the them was the always physical Steelers at Pittsburgh.  The Bengals put up 24 on them last year but that was w/ a couple of unbelievably sick throws by Carson Palmer.  Now that their offense is better, the opposition should have even less opportunity to score b/c the Bears should be stomping people in the time of possession battle.  Sorry to ramble on but I knew I could find a weak link in the chain here.  The Bears have only been favorites of 10 or more points once in the last 10 years.  They were -13 vs San Fran last season and won the game 17-9 w/o covering.  This is a major red flag.

Even when the Rams went nuts in 1999 they didn't draw so much attention to be -10 point favorites in Week 5.  All it will take for the Bears not to cover is a couple near misses on long would be touchdown passes that become field goals.  It would take a lot of balls to make this wager.  (Don't try this at home.) 

Bills +10 *

Rams-2 at Packers

I don't care for this match up at all.  If you read my Monday Night Notes, you would think I'm crazy if the Rams aren't the pick.  The knock on this game is who wants to bet on a "see saw" battle of bootball.  Bootball is when neither team can stop the other one to the point which a football game resembles the NBA.  My pick comes down to the way theses teams momentum appear to be going.  The Rams players feel like all they needed was a coach who can be the glue that holds them together.  You can tell they have faith in his system.  The Packers players are looking over their shoulders knowing a housecleaning is coming in the offseason.  A lot of bullshit for a game I still can't figure out.

Rams -2 *

San Diego -3.5 vs Pittsburgh

As far as I can tell, the oddsmakers are trying to trick people into thinking, how many are the Chargers going to win by w/ this line?  Fools, the Steelers have lost 2 in a row so they suck right now.  Wrong, their first loss to Jacksonville was kind of understandable.  They should have given Batch another start after his fine performance in Week 1, Big Ben wasn't ready to start and looked rusty.  I hate it when a player steps in, plays well, and is promptly put back on the bench in favor of a big name player.  Back to the point, in their second loss to the Bengals, Cheeseburger started to show flashes of last season.  Don't forget, he put the Steelers on his back and carried them in games vs Denver and Indy in the playoffs last year.  The only reason the Steelers lost vs the Bengals was b/c "The Almighty Himself" stepped in on Carson Palmer's behalf and won the game for them.  The Bengals also have a ballhawking secondary.  The Chargers don't.  Big Ben has had the necessary time to work w/ his receivers during the bye week.  He should be the surprise of the week to the media.  The only concern I have is the health of my favorite player, Hines Ward.  The Steelers need this guy to have a decent game.  I can't think of a better spot to catch the Steelers.  Coming off 2 losses vs an inexperienced QB w/ a degree in "Martyball".  Did anyone forget how good the Steelers play on the road?

Steelers +3.5* * *

New England -10 vs Miami

I really liked the Pats in this one until I thought about these 2 coaches being so chummy.  That being aside, the Fish are already being chopped up into crab bait.  The Dolphins can't block anybody.  They couldn't put up any points vs the Titans or Texans.  What happened to the team that looked halfway respectable vs the Steelers in Week 1.  The Pats would just like to shut the media up for awhile.  It shouldn't be a problem to score 30 something points from the field position Culpepper will give to them.  The players don't care about friendship when the Division Ttitle is up for grabs.  Don't worry about the Pat's beat up secondary.  The Dolphins won't have time to exploit it.

Patroits -10 **

Indy -18.5 vs Tenn

The oddsmakers are going to make you pay for the Colts here.  They just might run the tables on the lunatics taking the Colts.  There are a lot of unknowns going into this one.  How is the clubhouse responding to the Haynesworth incident in Tenn?  I guess his absence won't matter b/c the Colts will score one way or another.  It might help the people with the nerve to take the Titans or should I just say all the small time books forced to take them.  The Colts would like to get some practice in for their running backs and Haynesworth absence will only make that idea more tempting.  There is no real bad blood to speak in this Division rivalry.  The Colts may grind out the clock and take it easy on the Titans.  The Colts will have a hard time getting up for this one.  They better not completely fall asleep.  Vince Young had some encouraging moments vs Dallas last week.  If the Colts' defense doesn't play better than last week, the Titans could surprise some people and score around 20 points.  I suggest passing on this one.

Tenn +18.5 *   LUNATIC FRINGE, I KNOW YOU'RE OUT THERE

Detroit +6.5 at Minnesota

The winless Lions are heading into the noisy Metrodome vs a team coming off 2 losses w/ a bye the following week.  The Vikings in no way shape or form want to go into the bye week on a 3 game losing streak.  Even Detroit can keep their attention this week.  The kicker for me is a statistic I have on Minnesota.  They are 37 - 5 - 1 against the spread coming off back to back losses when they win a game vs a Division opponent.  The Vikings WR's want to redeem themselves and start "making plays".  The Lions secondary is a good group to get healthy on.

Vikings -6.5 *   I FEEL LIKE I'M WRONG HERE, THE LAST 2 WEEKS THE LIONS HAVE LET ME DOWN SO NOW THAT I'M GOING AGAINST THEM THEY WILL PLAY THEIR BEST GAME OF THE YEAR.  THE VIKINGS NEED A BIG LEAD TO COVER SOME ANTICIPATED NEVER SAY DIE BULLSHIT THAT KITNA IS SURE TO PULL IN THE 4TH QUARTER 

New Orleans -6.5vs Tampa Bay

The Saints have always given the Buccs a hard time.  Even the year the Buccs won the Superbowl, they lost both games to the Saints.  This game has some funk on it.  Saints look like an easy pick at first glance.  Do the Buccs have enough defense left to fluster Drew Brees?  I think so.  The Buccs are trying to save their season and are pulling together knowing a team effort is necessary to protect a rookie QB.  Hell, Simms is a muddshark anyway.  My thought on the game is it will be a weird one full of turnovers.  The Saints win a low scoring contest by a funky score of 12 - 9, 16 -10.  The Saints are playing a division game for the 3rd week in a row.  Division games seem to be more taxing on teams' energy.

Buccs +6.5 *   my baloney has a first name , it's poop and that's what I think of this game.  NOTHING SOLID HERE, it make take a whole roll of tp to watch this game.

Dallas +2 at Philly

After looking at the stats from both of last years matchups, the Cowboys are the only way to go.  This extremely high profile game has a better chance for the officials to get involved more than any other game on the plate Sunday.  Visiting teams have the best chance of getting the old college "homer" treatment in Philly.  The Boys defense should be the difference. My disdain for Iggle fans has got me rooting for the "anti player".            

Dallas  +2 *       Go ahead and shine T.O., I love me too.

Carolina -8 vs Cleveland

The deciding match up in the game is the Panthers D line vs Cleveland's O line.  If Charlie Frye has any time at all to throw the Browns WR could easily find the end zone a couple of times.  Carolina's philosophy on Offense doesn't maket them a favorite team of mine when they lay a fair amount of points.  I really hate agreeing w/ the masses, but this game looks like a gimme.  All that hotel and airplane food has got to be gettin' to the Browns.

Carolina -8 *

Giants-4.5 vs Skins

The series was split last season.  The Giants romped 36 - 0 in the first game which was at New York.  Don't expect them to run away and hide in this one.  It took the Skins half a season to hit stride last year, then they went on a hot streak.  This year they may have found themselves already.  These teams are so evenly matched, a call is hard to make.  The Redskins have looked so good on offense lately that it is hard not seeing them keeping this one close at the very least.  Did the Giants quit pointing fingers at each other and make a commitment to circling the wagons?  I'll go w/ the team w/ momentum --

Washington +4.5 *

San Fran-3.5 vs Oakland

The Raiders may finally have an idea of just how bad they are being dogs to the Niners.  I can picture a few of them being so oblivious to this notion that they still think even Da Raiders are still better than a bunch of pussies from San Fran. Will a thrashing from the Niners wake them up?Trouble is, most of them appear in a self induced coma of sorts.  There is no team in Oakland, only a band of hodge podge players pretending to be professional athletes.  I'm not even going to try to picture the game in my head for fear of nightmares  The only thing that matters in this type of game is pride and the Raiders don't have any.  What kind of parade was that.

Niners -3.5 * *  I doubt the Raiders can put 20 plus points on the board two weeks in a row

Jacksonville -7 vs NY Jets.

The Jets have finally come up against a team that will physically overwhelm them.  The Jaguars are coming off back to back losses in close games.  They have a bye next week.  What are the chances of being in the exact same scenario as the Vikings on the same day?  The Jags have got to be salty and hungry for something to get that taste out of thier mouths.  I still don't feel great about the Jags even though they are the pick.  They have a little Jekyll and Hyde routine on offense that is hard to predict.  If I knew they will go for the throat early, the Jags are an easy call.  I don't have those types of connections.

Jaguars -7  *    with a touch of reservation

Arizona +3  vs K.C.

You smell that?  We have 2 teams here coming off games from both sides of the spectrum.  If this was an honest line (meaning the oddsmakers are trying to split people 50/50 on the game), the Chiefs would be -7.  I can't remember if the Cardinals offense showed more life in McNown's first start last year or if it took a few games for them to at least starting scoring some points.  A team starting a Rookie in his first start that can't run the ball is only a 3 point dog.  This terd must be made from TOTAL because it just keeps getting bigger and bigger.  What the hell am I missing here?  There is a lot of uncertainty on how the Chiefs O line will look on the road.  I'm not worried about their QB.  I don't think the Cards are going to start converting a bunch of 3rd downs running the ball anytime soon either.  I just looked in my "holy book of sorts", Marc Lawrence's Playbook, the Cardinals were 0-4 against the spread as home dogs last season.  Is there really some people walking the street who still believe the hype on Arizona's offseason improvements?  Is Matt Leinart really good enough to step in and produce right away?  Is that why the line is only 3 points?  Why why why?  The Cards would be better off w/ the heat to help them out.  The most important matchup I can think of is the Chief running attack vs the Cards defense.  If the Cards can take away the run, they could easily cover.  I could have saved you from all of my thoughts and just wrote:  The Chiefs are a veteran team from a tough division.  They have the edge as far as all the intangibles go.  The Chiefs are mediocre and mediocre teams w/ inflated egos usually pound on wouded ducks when presented the opportunity.  The Cards are hit or miss.  When they lose, they don't cover and when the win they do , I can't picture them winning the game outright.

Chiefs -3 *   RUN AWAY     THE CARDS AREN'T DEAD YET

Denver -4 vs Baltimore

I'm sure a lot of "experts" like the Ravens do to factors like matchups and such.  The Ravens have had the Broncos number over the years.  Last season when Denver won 12-10, they had just played a perennial big game for them at KC the week before.  They will have a lot more energy for this one having a bye last week.  The Ravens get on the plane after a tiring, hard fought battle w/ San Diego.  I just had a moment of clarity.  The Chargers were able to have some success vs the vaunted Ravens D at Balitmore.  The Ravens offense is certainly going to have more problems w/ Denver's D than Denver vs Ravens Defense.  This is going to come down to a few big plays, and the Bronco's are going to make them.  How many picks is Plummer going to throw?  Do you know any experts on predicting defensive TD's?  Has Plummer really come out of the coma he has been in since the debauchery vs the Steelers last year?  I wish I could have seen some of his TV interviews this week.  When he starts batting his eyes like a lizard, he doesn't play like the snake on Sunday.  All I have to go on is Denver's record at home last season, they won by more than 4 points in 5 out of 8 games.  The Ravens have barely won a couple games vs some not so impressive teams.  One last thing, at 4 - 0 the Ravens are due for a loss and Mile High altitudes are the perfect place to run out of breath.

Denver -4 *

All of my picks are subject to change by Sunday.  I typically post them Sunday morning after getting weather reports and a last minute check on injuries.  I will update them by noon Sunday if something comes up.

Monday Night Notes

Packers vs Eagles

I'm writing some things down here to help go back on for future reference. 

Eagles D Coordinator Jim Johnson apparently doesn't like playing the standard blowout prevent defense.  Those of you who were "on" the Pack like myself were better off if Buckhalter would not have fumbled twice in the first half.  Ole #4 didn't have time to throw up 28 garbage bags (points) in the second half.  The Eagles will cover like mad vs mud squads all  year if the no prevent defense idea keeps being played out.  On the other side of the spectrum, the Eagles didn't show me enough to think they will win the NFC East.  They really didn't do much besides pick on the Packers right corner Ahmed Carrol.  McNabb tucked the ball and ran a lot more than he wanted to.  Against some of the better teams on their schedule, this offense is going to struggle.  The Eagles defense looks like a good running teams will have success against them.  The Packers season is starting to look like a funeral procession.  The new coach looks like he wished one #4 had retired.  These two are definately not on the same page.  The looks on their faces at times showed some serious negative feelings.  These guys have the world at their feet and look unhappy. (Not a good sign.)  The coach just wants to make it "his" team while ole #4 is changing the plays in the huddle.  One positive I saw is their O line.  They are not nearly as bad as advertised in the preseason.  The Packers defense is not very deep.  By the end of most games, they will be dead tired. It won't be long before this bunch starts pointing fingers at each other and implodes.  There is a strong possibility we haven't seen the worst of this bandaid bunch yet. Somebody dial 911, the cheese in Wisconsin is making people "shit down their leg". Strange thing is it only happens on Sunday.