Beezerspalace

Week 3

Steelers  -1.5 vs Bengals

The Bengals have the momentum going into this game or should I say fight.  There's over a 50% chance someone's going to get ejected.  This is a can't miss game.  Whichever team's QB is still playing at the end of this game will win.  This will be a tossup considering how sloppy the field will be.  I'm guessing the Steelers will uncover the field early in attempt to slow the Bengals down.  I see a low scoring game that the Bengals pull out by the grace of God.  They are by no means locks.

Bengals *

Under ** 43

Indy -7 vs Jacksonville

This will be the first game the Colts will really feel the loss of their Edge.

Jacksonville +7 is a no brainer.

Jaguars +7  **

Ravens -7 vs Browns

The Ravens know they must take care of business in the AFC North before thinking about the Playoffs.  They have lost at Cleveland two years in a row so I don't think a letdown will occur.

Ravens -7 **

Tampa Bay +3 vs Carolina

Steve Smith is a game time decision.  The last 10 times these teams have squared off the visiting team is 2-8 vs the spread.  Yes, the Panthers should have won last week but that doesn't mean the ball will bounce their way on Sunday.  The Buccs do look anemic on Offense so far you say, think about the fact that Atlanta could only put 14 point on the board at home despite winning the time of possession battle by over 10 minutes.  At 0-2, the Buccs are just as hungry for a win as the Panthers.  The Buccs are division home dogs. A truly intelligent gambler wouldn't touch this game.

Buccs +3 *

Vikings +3.5vs Bears

The Bears have played no one respectable so far.  If they go into Minnesota and win convincingly there are plenty of games left to "get on" them.  This doesn't look like a good spot.  Bernard Berrian is not going to go wild.  The Bears haven't won in Minnesota since 2001.  It won't be easy to win this one.

Vikings +3.5*

The Under of 35 is way too low if you think Grossman is the real deal.   

Houston +4 vs Washington

What am I missing here?  Something stinks, this may be the last time the Texans are less than a touchdown dog this season except for vs Tennessee.

Washington -4 **

At 0-2 the Redskins do not need extra motivation.  If they don't cover this one, look for them to go seriously in the tank.

Seahawks -3.5 vs Giants

The Giants may be tired after last week's marathon vs Philly.  This is their second road game in a row.  The Giants look like the right choice but sometimes the right choice is a loser. We will finally see if the Seahawks offense is really struggling or not because they know they need at least 24 points to beat the Giants.

Seawaks *  -3.5

Bills -6 vs Jets

Hard to believe this bullshit.  The Jets will need some freak plays to cover here.  The Bills have been impressive and haven't played a home game yet.  I still don't trust them as favorites.

Bills *  -6

Detroit -7 vs Green Bay

Do you want to give the Lions (of all teams) the benefit of the doubt just because they've gone up against two good defenses?  You might as well because Detroits front seven should have a field day.

Detroit -7 *

Only a Lions fan would take 'em as favorites.

San Fran +6  vs Philly

Beating the crap out of the Niners won't make losing last week to the Giants any better.  This looks very similar to the Cowboys - Niners game last season.  the Cowboys had blown a lead the previous week to Washington.  You would think they wanted to take their frustrations out on the Niners.  Wrong.  It took them 3 quarters to wake up before pulling out a close one.  The Eagles won 42-3 vs San Fran last year.  The Niners still suck but they are no longer the worst team in the league and play very hard for thier Coach.  Last years whippping only provides more motivation.

49ers  +6  *

New England -6.5 vs Denver 39

Denver's defense may keep this one closer than expected.  Points will be hard to come by.

Denver +6.5

Under **

Miami -11 vs Tennessee

Even Culpepper will look good vs the Titans.  I like to bet against him.  He's just a fumble away from ruining your day.  Seeing a winless team laying 11 points seems odd.  The Fish stink from a mile away.

Tennessee +11  *

Arizona -4 vs St Louis  45

I haven't seem enough of these teams to make a call.  Both defenses need improvement.  My guess is Steven Jackson will have a huge day.  Will the Cardinals convert a few TDs in the Redzone?  A bunch of field goals won't get a cover.

Rams  +4  *

Atlanta -3.5 vs New Orleans

Atlanta should stomp the Saints pretty good.  The officiating is the only thing that can screw us here.

Falcons  *** -3,5

Week 2

Seattle -7  vs Arizona

If you go by last week's performance, Arizona would be the pick.  Not so fast.  Detroits defense is very tough at home and we shouldn't be surprised the Seahawks struggled in the season opener on the road.  Hell, last year they lost at Jacksonville in Week 1.  Seattle beat the Cards at home last year 37-12.  I don't see this weeks game being much different.  The Cards are still going to struggle in the red zone, especially on the road vs a good defense.  Good running teams make for good favorites b/c they still score points while grinding out the clock.  The Cards should be forced to pass, pass, and pass some more.  Can you say sacks, int, and three and out?

Seattle **

San Diego vs Tennessee

Going against one of the leagues best defenses does not bode well for the Titans.  I would start Tomlinson's backup in fantasy leagues this week.  San Diego will put on a good show for the fans in their home opener.  The Chargers have a bye next week will no doubt get an extra day off if they crush the Titans.

Chargers  -11.5  **

New Orleans  -2 vs Green Bay

The Saints will be out for blood after last year's 52-3 thrashing at Lambeau.  I don't care who wins.  Both teams look like they have plenty of motivation to score points.  The total of 38 is way off.  One of these teams wil score thirty something by themselves.

Over   38   **

The Saints have been road favs twice in 3 seasons rior to this year.  They have won 1 game in 9 tries in Wisconsin.  The Packers are the epitome of my No Fucking Logic (NFL) theory.

Packers   *

Baltimore  -12 vs Oakland

West coast teams have a harder time going East than East coast teams going West.  The time change is a killer on their minds as well as physical time clocks.  Da Raiders have a "Monday Night" hangover as well.  I've seen so much bad officiating that I'm afraid to call anything close to a lock.  Remember this, the Ravens will be a very popular bet Sunday.  Never a good thing.  The hapless Raiders look like they'll put up another pitiful effort.

Ravens  -12  **

They are worthy of a wager but not the farm.

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

Anyone who says they can figure this one is full of cacca.  Anyone who follows the league closely knows the Steelers struggle in Jacksonville.  Jags are 3-0 in Sept vs Pittsburgh.  Throw that stat out b/c it should be at least a little cooler being a Monday Night Game.  The Jags won last year, Joey Porter and Co. take that personal.  The Steelers surprisingly have plenty of fire.  The Steelers are good "Monday Night Gamers" while the Jaguars seem to be uptight under the spotlight.  Dating back to 12/11/05 vs Chicago, the Steelers have covered 8 games w/ a push somewhere in the middle. 

Steelers   *       Never bet against a streak.

Colts -14 vs Houston

The question is:  Will the Colts put this team away or fuck around playing ball control.  Remember the game vs the Browns early last season?  My guess is they will run up the score to protect their suspect running game.  There are better games to wager on.

Colts  -14  *

Broncos  -10.5 vs Chiefs

The Broncos are coming off a loss besides playing their home opener.  They have plenty of players on Offense who would like to forget last week.  The Chiefs are turning to chumps in a hurry.  7 sacks given up to the "Who Dey" Bengals.  Broncos will have no pity. 

Broncos *

Buffalo vs Miami   

Both teams played very respectable games vs quality opponents last week.  So you think.  The Pats looked soft vs the Bills while Miami hung w/ a very pumped up Steeler team.  At least for 3 quarters of so.  The Fish look like a bargain as favs of less than a TD.  Culpepper is having a homecoming of sorts.  The Fish are extremely tough to beat at home in September.  J.P. Losman is no Charlie Batch (that was a joke).  Bills get a reality check

Dolphins *

Jets  +6 vs Pats

The Pats looked far from dominant in Week 1.  Pennington had a good game vs a pedestrian secondary.  I'm sure Bellichek is going to get a better effort from his squad this week.  The Jets coach knows the Pats defense so well, it's hard to imagine the Jets not breaking off a few big plays.  The Jets looked like a real NFL team vs Tennessee.  The Patroits are not ready to just start stomping the guts out of people. 

Jets *

This matchup has gone "under" a lot lately.

Atlanta vs Tampa Bay

This is a game best left alone.  Sure, the Buccs looked bad while the Falcons were impressive vs Carolina.  The Buccs have won 9 of the past 11.  It might be time for a changing of the guard but let's wait and see if Atlanta is truly for real.  Gruden will call a better game vs a team he's familiar with.

Buccs *

Dallas  -6 vs Washington

The boys looked good until the Florida heat wilted them.  These teams look like they will split the division series.  In all likelihood, the home team should prevail in Dallas as well as the rematch at Washington.  If you look at your wagers like investments, neither team looks like good stock here.

Dallas  -6   *

Eagles -3 vs Giants

The Eagles got a tune up in last week whlie the G men were bent over by the officials on national TV.  The Giants will be either riproaring mad or still in some state of disbelief.  The Giants were sloppy.  They can't be trusted and the true Eagles have yet to be seen .  The Giants make the most sense.  They swept the series in 2005.  They had the Colts in 3rd and long a few times only to get their back broken by one of the best QB-WR tandems in league history, besides quite a few questionable calls.  There are no Marvin Harrisons to worry about this week.

Giants +3  *

Chicago -8 vs Detroit

Punt, punt and more commercials.  Detroit's new coach looks like he's going to try to make teams beat his defense.  Chicago will have to get at least a 10 pt lead before the Lions open up their playbook and take chances.  If the Bears can't score we won't see as many Jon Kitna floaters go over the heads of his receivers and into the hands of Chicago's safeties.  Kit can throw to the sidelines OK, its the throws over the middle that he struggles with.  I've been sitting here struggling to make a decision thinking the Lions are +6.5.  At +9 they look good to me.  The Bears won 26-0 last week.  Last year while looking dominant on defense the final scores were always closer than the game appeared.  Bears in a close game.

Lions  *

Minn -1.5  vs Carolina

The Vikings were very impressive on the road last week.  They appear to have a solid defense and rushing attack (my kind of team).  Brad Johnson has done nothing but win since he was plugged into the lineup.  The Panthers might have rolled on the Vikings last year but that was vs Culpepper early in the season before these guys were able to start forgetting about the "Love Boat".  Only the officials can stop the Vikings.  Without Steve Smith the Panthers are mud.

Minn  -1.5  **

Cincy  -10 vs Cleveland

The "Battle of Ohio" Part 1.  Looks like it won't be close.  Before we jump on the Bengals, I'm going to try to find a few reasons to take the Browns.  After the Bengals beat the Steelers in a "big game" last year, the Bengals appeared to have gone "Hollywood".  The next few weeks after that game they came out flat as pancakes vs Cleveland and Buffalo.  This is a sign of a mentally immature team.  The Bengals already have the Steelers on their minds.  In case you don't know, the Bengals are at Pitt next week, they might look at this game like a preseason game.  Vegas has this game right on the number.  Anthony Wright might play the whole 2nd Half.  Who knows?

Bengals  -10  *  Buyer beware.

The Manning Bowl

Colts -3 at Giants    48

There should be no way to stop this game from going over.  These teams are not familiar w/ each other and that gives the advantage to the offenses.  The Colts have the mental edge while the Giants are more physically talented and at home.  It could possibly come down to the last team with the ball at the end of the game.  The Giants have a better chance of blowing out the Colts than the Colts blowing out the Giants. 

Giants *      Over **

Week 1

If this is your first visit to the Palace, make sure you check out my Star Rating system in my first post Sept 4th. 

This year, I will be making mid afternoon posts around 3:30 pm EST Sundays, a lot of times after watching the 1:00 games, I have a much better handle on the late games.

New England -10  vs Buffalo  41

The Pats are too expensive at -10 to wager on.  They won 4 games last year by a margin of 10 points or better in games in Week 12 through 15 when they were making a late season push.  They couldn't afford to lose a game at the time and were "putting teams away" early by all means necessary.  Think about this:  the Pats play the Bills, then the Jets before hosting Denver only to go to Cincy in Week 4.  In their minds, the Bills and Jets games are a little more than preseason warmups.  The Pats are way too polished to overlook these teams but they certainly won't use their 'big plays" unless they have to.  The Pats also have a lot of new WR's.  The Bills have nothing to lose except their pride which as been bruised repeatedly by the Pats.  Expect a good effort from them.  Hopefully, the only people who lose money the Pats today are a bunch of retaawwwds from Boston.

Bills *      Under *

I wouldn't have the balls to bet on the Bills but I do know when not to get "on" the Pats.  If this was the only game until "settle up' day and I was trying to get even, the 10 points would be hard not to take.

K.C. vs Cincy   +1   47.5

The Bengals are a popular pick this week.  It's hard to find many resons to disagree.  The kicker for me is the Chiefs suddenly thin Offensive line.  These guys were the best for years and coud make anyone look good.  What once was this team's biggest strength could easily become their achilles heal besides a suspect Defense.  That doesn't make the Bengals a sure thing, so don't get carried away.  The injury report has quite a few Bengals on it.  The Bengals have less changes to deal with in the offseason and should play more together.  It may take the Chiefs a few games to get comfortable w/ thier new Offensive coordinator.  The Chief's Defense biggests deficiency last year was against the pass, today they go up against one of the league's best play callers. 

Bengals *      Over *

Eagles - 5.5 at Texans   37

The Texans didn't fare too well last year as underdogs of 6 points or less.  The Eagles are plenty motivated to erase last year's memory. 

Things to consider before flyin' high on the Eagles:  The Eagles haven't fared well as road favs vs the AFC.  The Eagles have yet to prove they will be an Offensive juggernaut.  I'm going to make a few reaches here:  The Texans Offense will be improved because of Eric Moulds.  He's the first true No. 1 receiver that Carr has played with.  Andre Johnson is a good deep threat, but lacks the little things that a No. 1 receiver does to get "open".  He should ony get better under Mould's tutelage.  New Coach Gary Kubiak is offensive minded and will find something his players are good at and stick to it rather than impose a system and try to mold players into it.

From a mental standoint, the Eagles may be looking ahead to the Giants.  This is the basis of my pick.  Out of all of the mudd squads from last year, the Texans are takin' the most shit.  There is not a lot of respect around the League for them.  I am pretty sure a nasty attitude is brewing in Houston.  These guys want some respect and will fight like cornered animals.  The Eagles will have a hard time matching the Texans intensity.  The Eagles will win, but the Texans will cover.

Texans *

Denver 3.5 at St. Louis    46

The Rams got off easy last year vs the AFC only having to play Indy, Jax, and Houston.  Hey Rams fans, a real smashmouth NFL Team is coming to town to wipe the floor with you guys.

Denver *    

These teams should run the ball a lot which should make for a short game.  Under *

New Orleans +3 at Cleveland   37

In a game with no clear cut faavorite, always take the points.  The Saints clearly have the more level headed QB.  The Saints have played better ont he road for years.  If I knew the Browns O-line would play well, I'd take the Brownies.

Saints *   Over *

Jets +3 at Titans   35.5

Being a Bengals fan, I sympathize witha all the poor loyal fans watching this one.  The Jets don't look any worse than the Titans.  People in the Titans locker room have to be looking at each other saying "what the fuck?"    Kerry Collins, are you kidding me?       Where's Matt Leinart?   It's still not enough to take the Jets.  Their young Offensive line can't be trusted on the road vs a Tenn Defense that's respectable vs the run.

Titans  (scary) *         

The Under looks like way too easy of a pick here, I'll go for the over in a game full of turnovers.   Over *

Ravens +3 at Buccaneers  34

Florida teams have an advantage at home early in the year much like cold weather teams in Dec and Jan.  The Buccs are a solid team to boot.  This looks like a close game until the Ravens get dehydrated in the 2nd Half. 

Buccaneers *

Atlanta +5 at Carolina    39

The Panthers minus Steve Smith at 100% make this an even game.  This should be a highly entertaining hard fought close game.  The Panthers are not the fastest team out of the gate either.  Falcons have revenge on their minds.

Falcons  **      Under *

Seahawks -6 at Lions   45

The Bengals and Falcons were the only teams that really put a whippin on the Lions in Detroit last year.  I just had an incredible though while trying to picture this game:  It occurred to me that just being back in Detoit might remind the Seahawks of just how pissed they were or are.  Do you think they'll take it out on the Lions today?   Lions fans are always bitchin' about their QB's.   It's hard when the QB is always running for his life, the Seahawks led the League in sacks last season. The Seahawks have some appeal here.  The knock on taking the Seahawks is Jon Kitna.  Much like Brett Farve, he will try to put up points no matter how trashy they are.

Seahawks *  Under *

Cowboys +1  at Jaguars   36.5

Punt, punt, fumble, interception.  Pick the winner and you have a good chance of covering.  It's a waste of time trying to predict the winner here.  I'll go with some team history trends here.  The Jags are 5-0 at home vs the NFC in September.

Jaguars *    Under *

San Fran at Arizona  -8   43

The Cardinals are "supposed to be" vastly improved.  New stadium + sellout crowd = blowout.  Until the Cards prove they can run the ball, I recommend staying away from them.

Cardinals *    Over **

Wednesday Night Blues

After reading some of the usual bullshit in the paper and on the computer, this weeks games are looking harder to figure for me.  I was not happy to see that a lot of people are seeing things the way I did in my first post.  When I wrote my first post, I was just trying to handicap the game logically.  Then I thought about how many times I've told myself the NFL stands for No F-ing Logic.  Seems to me that the majority out there likes New England, Philly, Seattle, Denver, San Diego, Chicago, Dallas and Cincinnati.  The last 2 teams, both underdogs are traveling to venues to where the home teams both have very good home opener records.  There is no way all of the 6 favorites here will cover, why?  because they all look like the logical pick.  If it was that easy, bookies would not be in business.  All of these games have red flags.  The one thing that I do know from experience that when it seems I'm struggling to make picks in any given week a lot of dogs seem to come in.  The odds makers have always preferred to suck people into the favorites.  The Bears/ Packers game is a prime example, I know, I know, the Pack looks down.  We need not forget the Packers have been home dogs less than a dozen times since '91 before last years injury riddled debauchery.  This is the beginning of a new season.  It's all up for grabs as far as any teams mindset goes.  This is a rivalry game to boot.  Throw out the records, oh wait, we've already done that.  You still feel like firing some bones down on the Bears.  Hopefully I'll have a clue by Sunday. 

Steelers vs. Dolphins     PICK EM      34.5

The whole world is giving the Steelers the motivation what they need to win this game.  All of the so called experts can talk about is Dante Culpepper, how good the Dolphins look and their strong finish last season.  Yes, the Fish finished strong last year, but against weak teams during the NFL silly season.  The last 6 games or so is when shitty teams gut out a few wins for the fans and media.  It will take 5 to 6 weeks for the cookie to crumble in the Steel City.  These are still the Steelers in their own house no less.  Bottom line is the Dolphins haven't proved to me they can hang with a top notch team.  If you are inclined to take a team, it has to be the Steelers.

The total of 34.5 is awfully low for nice weather.  Both teams have a lot of new personnel on offense and there should be a fair amount of turnovers that lead to points.

Steelers *     Over *